1today's summary

①、Petrochemical South China PP price reduction: Maoming 8003 down 50 to 7700, M09 down 100 to 7750; Hainan F03D down 50 to 7550, F03G down 50 to 7600; Zhongke 548R down 50 to 7650. PetroChina South China PP price reduction: Guangdong L5E59/7430, L5D98/7430, GH12M/7500, K8003/7620.

②、Today, the domestic polypropylene shutdown impact increased by 0.55% to 17.54%. Details of changes in domestic PP maintenance facilities today: Jinneng Chemical Line 2 (450,000 tons/year) PP facility is under maintenance. Shanghai Petrochemical Line 1 (100,000 tons/year) PP facility is under maintenance. The daily production ratio of fiber dropped by 0.55% to 23.59%, mainly due to Guangdong Petrochemical Line 1 switching to other products.

③、This week (20250307-0314), the supply-demand gap continued to widen to 96,500 tons. The demand fell short of expectations, leading to a slower digestion of goods. The decrease in maintenance losses led to an increase in supply that exceeded the pace of demand absorption, causing the supply-demand gap to unexpectedly widen.

2spot overview

Table 1 Summary of Domestic Polypropylene Prices (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data source: Longzhong Information

Taking East China as the benchmark, today's polypropylene fiber closed at 7343 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday, in line with early expectations.Futures narrow range upward, today's polypropylene price range fluctuates, international oil prices rise significantly, cost support strengthens, futures market shows red, however, downstream factories have limited follow-up, general enthusiasm for spot purchases, market traders mainly cautiously offer discounts for sales, actual transactions to be negotiated. By midday, the mainstream price of drawing in East China is 7260-7420 yuan/ton.

3futures-spot basis

From the basis perspective, the basis in North China today is 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton from yesterday; the polypropylene basis in East China is 94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from yesterday.

4production dynamics

The utilization rate of polypropylene capacity increased from 74.93% to 76.53%, a decrease of 0.70% compared to yesterday. Details of today's PP maintenance changes: Jinneng Chemical Line 2 (450,000 tons/year) PP unit is shut down for maintenance. Shanghai Petrochemical Line 1 (100,000 tons/year) PP unit is shut down for maintenance.

5market sentiment

Today, international oil prices have risen significantly, strengthening the cost support. The futures market has stopped falling and is warming up. However, the demand from downstream factories is average, and the sentiment for purchasing raw materials is cautious. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is lukewarm, with traders mainly following the market trend and cautiously offering discounts to sell.

6price prediction

Short-term international oil prices are expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations, with limited support from the cost side. From the demand side, downstream is constrained by limited new orders, and the willingness to enter the market for procurement is poor, mostly choosing to replenish low-demand goods, providing limited support to the market. There are no new expansions on the supply side, and some facilities still have maintenance plans, making the supply pressure manageable. It is expected that the polypropylene market will fluctuate within a range next week, with mainstream prices for drawing in East China ranging from 7260-7420 yuan/ton.