Polypropylene (PP) Achieves a Perfect Export Performance in the First Half of the Year—What’s Next for the Second Half?

Introduction:In the first half of the year, China's polypropylene exports reached 1.564 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.05%, far exceeding the growth rate of apparent consumption. Moreover, there was a perfect reversal in imports and exports for three consecutive months. Will exports continue to grow in the second half of the year, and what are the highlights of this export growth?

Figure 1: Monthly Export Volume Statistics of Domestic Polypropylene from 2023 to 2025 (Unit: 10,000 tons)

From January to June 2025, China's polypropylene export volume reached 1.564 million tons, an increase of 24.05% year-on-year, which is significantly higher than the apparent consumption growth rate of 13.57% for the first half of the year. Observing the monthly export volume trend, polypropylene exports increased across the board year-on-year in the first half of the year. Among them, February saw the fastest year-on-year growth rate of 41.49%, and June's growth rate of 40.14% remained impressive. Although the year-on-year growth rate of exports in March was only 2.16%, the export volume base for 2024 was high at 315,500 tons, and the export volume for March 2025 reached 322,300 tons, once again setting a record high in export volume.

  Figure 2 Proportion of China's Polypropylene Exports by Country, 2023-2025

From the perspective of the main export destinations for Chinese polypropylene, Vietnam remains firmly in the lead with a share of 16.62%. The shares of South Asian countries, Bangladesh and India, have increased significantly, while the overall share of Southeast Asia has declined, with Thailand's share rising slightly to 5.54%. Southeast Asia remains the largest export region for Chinese polypropylene, but since 2025, South Asia has shown significant growth. Major countries in South America have seen a downward trend, while Africa has demonstrated impressive growth, although the base remains relatively low.

Figure 3 Monthly Export Volume of Chinese Polypropylene to Vietnam from 2023 to 2025 (Unit: 10,000 tons)

In the first half of 2025, China's polypropylene exports to Vietnam reached 259,900 tons, an increase of 20.49% compared to 215,700 tons in 2024, demonstrating a more stable export channel to Vietnam.

Figure 4: Statistics of China's Monthly Export Volume of Polypropylene to Thailand from 2023 to 2025 (Unit: 10,000 Tons)

In the first half of 2025, China's polypropylene exports to Thailand reached 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.54%. Except for a slight decline in April, exports in other months showed steady year-on-year growth. Thailand has become the most stable growing country in Southeast Asia after Vietnam, and the annual export volume is expected to exceed 150,000 tons.

Figure 5 Analysis and Forecast of Monthly Import and Export Volume Trends of Polypropylene in China, 2024-2025 (Unit: 10,000 tons)

From the perspective of import and export trends, imports and exports achieved a turnaround for three consecutive months in the first half of the year, laying the foundation for China’s polypropylene to shift from being a net importer to a net exporter. Looking at the second half of the year, polypropylene exports are expected to remain at a high level. However, since the import volume remains high and mainly consists of high-end products that are difficult to fully substitute in the short term, it is anticipated that export volumes will be unlikely to exceed import volumes.

In the second half of the year, Southeast Asia remains the main market for China's polypropylene exports. Besides Vietnam, Thailand will become a country with a high baseline and steady year-on-year growth. In South Asia, Bangladesh and India continue to experience policy fluctuations, while South America's decline throughout the year is inevitable. Africa has become the second largest export focus outside Southeast Asia, with an actual export volume of 294,500 tons in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 73.37%. However, exports to various African countries are relatively dispersed.

Based on the above analysis, in the first half of the year, China's polypropylene consumption grew by 13.57%, with export demand increasing by 24.05%, becoming the biggest highlight. In the second half of the year, as the government intensifies policies to stimulate demand, polypropylene consumption is expected to continue improving. On the supply side, the ongoing substitution of imports combined with a slowdown in capacity expansion will significantly ease supply pressure. The supply-demand gap will continue to improve, providing some support to the market. Exports will remain the largest highlight in demand growth, with rapid growth continuing not only in Southeast Asia and South Asia but also in the African region.