this weekmarket focus points:

Production: capacity utilization 70.63%.

Raw material: PTA industry operating at 79.08%.

2. Market Analysis

This period (20250314-0320) polyester bottle chip market fluctuated with a slight increase, the weekly average price of water bottle material in East China was 6090 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton from last week, with a growth rate of 0.23%. Geopolitical factors,Low rebound. However, the commodity atmosphere is bearish, with weak support from the raw material end, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment within the industry. The market price of polyester bottle chips shows a weak rebound. The downstream mainly focuses on digesting inventory, with transactions in a stalemate. Yesterday, the 03 contract was delivered for the first time, and foreign trade shipments were concentrated, leading to tight supply of some goods. Approaching the end of this month, some local goods are being sold at low prices. At the close, the spot price of polyester bottle chip water bottle material in East China was 6070 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week, with a growth rate of 0.33%.

3. Market Impact Factors Analysis

During this trading period (20250314-0320), the domestic polyester chip production was 29.10 million tons, a decrease of 0.49 million tons from last week, a reduction of 1.66%.

2) During this trading cycle (20250314-0320), according to Longzhong Information's production cost calculation model, the average polymerization cost was 5634.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.09 yuan/ton or +0.32% from last week; the average profit in the polyester chip industry was -144 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.09 yuan/ton or -2.92% from last week.

4. Later prediction:

Supply forecast: A major line of a factory in East China with a capacity of 500,000 tons plans to restart, and Hainan Yisheng's 250,000-ton plan is scheduled to restart. The output of polyester chips may increase to 304,500 tons next week.

Demand forecast: Considering the end of the month, the operating rate of the soft drinks industry is expected to decline to around 75%, while the operating rate of the PET sheet industry will be maintained at about 60%, with some areas running at full capacity or low load. The downstream terminals are mainly focused on digesting inventory, with a small amount of restocking.

Next week forecast: As maintenance facilities gradually restart, the supply-side pressure increases. However, after recent deliveries, foreign trade shipments are concentrated, and with large downstream factories picking up goods, some supplies are in tight circulation. Terminal demand has not seen a significant improvement, and the polyester chip market may face pressure, operating within a range. It is expected that next week, the spot price of water bottle material in the East China region will be 6000-6100 yuan/ton.