[PE Weekly Review] Spot Prices in the Polyethylene Market Rise and Fall

1 Summary of Market Conditions This Week

This week, international oil prices fell as the risk of oversupply increased, and the traditional peak season for fuel consumption in the United States is coming to an end, putting pressure on the oil market.

This week, the trading atmosphere in the PE packaging film market has slightly improved, with some packaging product stocking activities starting.

The polyethylene production for this period is 632,500 tons, an increase of 14,600 tons compared to the previous period. The total production for the next period is expected to be 652,600 tons, an increase of 20,100 tons compared to this period.

2. Review of the Polyethylene Market Trends This Week

This week, domestic polyethylene spot market prices fluctuated, with changes ranging from 5 to 24 yuan/ton (weekly average). Market speculation has cooled down, coupled with a weakening linear futures market, a decline in market sentiment, and a slow improvement in downstream orders, leading to a softening of polyethylene prices. The price of HDPE film was 8,006 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week; the price of LDPE film was 9,683 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from last week; the price of LLDPE film was 7,473 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from last week.

3. Polyethylene Market Outlook and Forecast

The next polyethylene price is expected to fluctuate and mainly decline. Key focuses: 1. Cost aspect. The support from oil-based costs is expected to weaken, while the support from coal-based costs remains largely unchanged; 2. Supply aspect. Market supply involves plans to restart units at Maoming Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical, and Daqing Petrochemical, with additional maintenance plans at Sinopec-SABIC, Sino-Korean Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical, leading to an overall increase in expectations. The total production for the next period is expected to be 652,600 tons, an increase of 20,100 tons compared to this period; 3. Demand aspect. The overall operating rate of downstream PE industries is expected to increase by 1.43% next week, with demand gradually improving, and market trading sentiment slightly improving. Some packaging products are starting to stock up, the agricultural film market has entered the reserve cycle, and company orders are gradually accumulating, with an expectation of improved production levels. In summary, the fundamentals are in a dual-increase state in terms of supply and demand, but market trading sentiment has weakened, and prices may mainly fluctuate downwards, with a range of 5-40 yuan/ton.