[PC Daily Review] High Supply and Low Demand Weigh on the Market, Weak Fluctuations at Low Levels

1. Today's Summary

Today, the domestic PC market remained in a low-level, weak, range-bound pattern, with trading activity staying subdued. External markets provided slight support, as international crude oil closed higher last Friday, with the ICE Brent September contract up USD 0.32/ton. Upstream bisphenol A prices edged lower, weakening cost support at the margin. At the start of the week, a few domestic PC producers cut ex-works offers by RMB 300–400/ton, and the decline in the spot market slowed slightly. High industry supply and weak downstream demand continued to dominate the market, with participants maintaining a strong wait-and-see stance. Only scattered just-needed transactions were seen, and the market lacked momentum for a rebound from the bottom.

2. Spot Overview

In terms of spot prices, the mainstream PC spot prices in major regions across the country were generally stable, with only a few domestic brands seeing slight declines. In East China and South China, the mainstream imported brands Covestro 2805 and Lotte 1100 were both quoted unchanged. In South China, Luxi 1609-11 spot prices fell by 100 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.66%. At present, the mainstream negotiated range for domestic PC in East China is 10,850-12,600 yuan/ton, and market prices have fallen to a yearly low.

In terms of market trading, at the beginning of the week, upstream manufacturers made few collective price adjustment moves, with only a few factories significantly lowering their ex-factory guide prices. The spot market’s overall decline has slowed, but lower prices have failed to stimulate downstream replenishment demand. End-user industries remain in the off-season with weak demand, and procurement remains cautious, with only rigid-demand small orders following through throughout. Traders mainly sold in line with market conditions, and market sentiment was subdued, with no concentrated surge in transactions.

3. Production Dynamics

Domestic PC production units are operating steadily, with no new maintenance shutdowns or load adjustment actions reported. Upstream raw material East China bisphenol A closed at 8,250 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, indicating a slight weakening on the cost side. Industry production profits have slightly recovered, with the current unit gross profit in the PC industry at 425 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the loss pressure from plant operations has eased slightly. Going forward, the Zhenhai Refining & Chemical unit will gradually return to normal operation, and expectations for an overall increase in industry supply have risen.

4. Market Forecast

In the short term, the domestic PC market is under pressure and is likely to continue a narrow-range downward trend. The main bearish factor is abundant industry supply: the restart of the Zhejiang Petrochemical plant has boosted operating rates across the sector, while downstream end-demand shows no signs of recovery, keeping fundamentals on the supply-demand side weak. The only slight bullish factor is that current prices are at this year’s low, leading to diverging sentiment among some market participants and limited downside room. Overall, the market remains in a weak tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Tomorrow, the focus will be on the bidding performance at Zhejiang Petrochemical and the ex-factory pricing moves of major producers.

(The above analysis is based on publicly available market data for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.)