[PBT Daily Review] Raw Material Gains And Losses Offset Each Other, Market Moves Sideways And Remains Stable

1. Today’s Summary

Today, mainstream quotations in the domestic PBT market remained unchanged and stable, with relatively limited overall price fluctuations. Upstream raw material trends were mixed: spot PTA prices rebounded, while BDO futures traded sideways, resulting in a balancing effect from both strong and weak cost-side support. Several production units in the industry underwent maintenance changes, and two production lines in Jiangsu and Changchun entered shutdown maintenance periods. In the previous period, industry output rose slightly, while capacity utilization remained at a low level of 49.92%. Ongoing industry losses led suppliers to support prices and stabilize the market; however, downstream demand remained weak in the off-season, leaving little ability to follow the rise in raw material prices. As a result, the market as a whole continued to trade sideways.

2. Spot Overview

In terms of spot prices, mainstream low- to medium-viscosity PBT pure resin prices in East China remained at RMB 8,300–8,800/tonne, unchanged from the previous period with no fluctuations. Upstream raw material markets were mixed: PTA in East China rose by RMB 95/tonne to RMB 5,740/tonne, an increase of 1.68%; BDO bulk water prices remained stable, with mainstream negotiations at RMB 7,700–7,800/tonne.

From the perspective of market trading, sentiment in the PTA futures market has improved, and the favorable upward trend in supply-demand fundamentals is providing bottom-cost support for PBT. On the BDO side, plant maintenance, catalyst replacement, and restart activities are underway, leading to a marginal weakening of supply-side support. At present, industry-wide production losses persist, and producers have a strong willingness to stabilize the market. However, downstream end-user demand is in the traditional off-season, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment among buyers. Most are waiting to buy at lower levels and are not actively chasing higher prices. As a result, the spot market continues to see flat trading driven only by rigid demand.

3. Production Updates

China’s PBT industry is seeing divergent plant operations, with maintenance and production ramp-ups occurring simultaneously. Zhejiang Changhong’s unit continues to operate at a low load; Kanghui New Materials’ newly added production line has come on stream, driving output higher; multiple production lines at Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe, Wuxi Xingsheng, Yizheng Chemical Fiber, and Jiangsu Changchun have successively shut down for maintenance. Overall industry operating rates remain low. In the previous period, total PBT output was 22,100 tonnes, up 7.28% month on month; the industry capacity utilization rate was 49.92%, with about half of the units shut down or operating at low loads.

4. Market Sentiment

The market sentiment in the industrial chain is relatively weak, with a muted tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Some categories on the raw material side have seen a rebound in prices, boosting the confidence of a few bulls; however, long-term industry losses and weak downstream demand are suppressing market sentiment. Middlemen and downstream manufacturing enterprises are mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach, with only limited stocking based on demand and no centralized procurement plans, resulting in an overall lackluster trading atmosphere in the market.

5. Market Forecast

In the short term, the domestic PBT market is expected to remain weak, with room for downward price negotiations. Overall support from the raw material side is limited, while sluggish downstream demand during the off-season remains the key factor weighing on the market. Industry-wide supply pressure is relatively high, and coupled with losses at production plants, suppliers have limited room for significant price adjustments. Overall, it is المتوقع that tomorrow the mainstream price range for medium- to low-viscosity PBT resin in East China will be RMB 8,000–8,500/mt, with some downward adjustment potential for high-end cargoes.

(The above analysis is based on publicly available market data and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.)