1、Today's Summary

①PBT manufacturers' quotations remain stable.

②This week, PBT facilities are operating normally in terms of supply.

③This week, China's PBT industry output reached 19,915 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.65%, showing little change from last week. The average gross profit margin for domestic PBT this week is -403 yuan/ton, an increase of 87 yuan/ton compared to the previous week.

2、Spot Overview

Taking East China as the benchmark, today's mainstream price for medium to low viscosity PBT resin is 8,000-8,300 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to yesterday. The PBT market continues to decline slightly, with the PTA market center shifting downwards and the BDO market running weakly. Insufficient cost support has led to a pessimistic sentiment in the PBT market, with reports of prices below the lower end, causing the market center to continue declining. According to Longzhong Information, the collection price for pure medium to low viscosity PBT resin in the East China market is 8,000-8,300 yuan/ton.

3、Production Dynamics

This week, China's PBT industry output reached 19,915 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.65%, showing little change from last week, and a decrease of 5.92% compared to the same period last year. In terms of facility operations, there were no significant changes to PBT facilities. This week, the average gross profit margin for domestic PBT is -403 yuan/ton, an increase of 87 yuan/ton compared to the previous week.

4、Price Forecast

The PBT market is expected to continue to be weak and watchful. In terms of costs, the domestic supply of PTA continues to shrink, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance. However, international oil prices are continuously weakening, and commodities lack positive drivers, leading to poor downstream purchasing enthusiasm. In the short term, the domestic PTA spot market will mainly experience weak fluctuations. The supply-side support for BDO is acceptable, but the demand from the terminal downstream is weak, and the trading mentality is bearish, with contract orders being the main focus, and few spot negotiations with severe price bargaining. Both supply and demand sides are in a tug-of-war. As costs fall, it continuously negatively impacts the PBT market, with industry players holding a pessimistic view of the future, making the market center more likely to fall than rise. Therefore, Longzhong expects that tomorrow's price for medium to low viscosity PBT resin in the East China market will be 8,000-8,200 yuan/ton.

5、Related Product Conditions

PTA Market: The spot market price for PTA in East China is consolidating at a weak level, with discussions around 4,855. This week, the main port delivery for May contracts was traded at a discount of 25, and the March delivery for May contracts was discussed at a discount of 15-20. International oil prices continue to fall, and market prices follow the cost, with the spot basis remaining strong. Buyer sentiment is somewhat cautious, and transactions are moderate. (Unit: yuan/ton)

BDO Market: The mainstream spot bulk water negotiation price in East China is 8,000-8,200 yuan/ton, and the drum price is 9,000-9,200 yuan/ton (cash on delivery), with the lower end down 100 yuan/ton from yesterday. Today, the BDO market in East China is running weakly. The supply side provides some support, with suppliers focusing on stabilizing the market. However, downstream demand is slightly weaker, and industry players are cautiously bearish, with contract orders being the main focus, and small spot deals negotiated at the lower end.

6、Data Calendar