[PA6 Weekly Review] Cost and Supply-Demand Game: PA6 Market Consolidates

1. Market Focus This Week

1) Sinopec's pure benzene prices for refineries in East China and South China increased by 100 yuan/ton, now set at 5,950 yuan/ton, effective from July 11. Sinopec's caprolactam weekly settlement price is 9,050 yuan/ton, Shenyuan weekly listing price is 9,100 yuan/ton, and caprolactam spot price in East China is currently 8,600 yuan/ton. (Unit: yuan/ton)

2) Regular PA6 chips in East and Central China are priced at 9,050-9,450 RMB/ton with spot cash and short-distance delivery, while some high-end chips are at 9,100-9,600 RMB/ton with cash self-pickup. Ordinary high-speed spinning PA6 chips are priced at 9,000-9,200 RMB/ton ex-works with spot cash, and premium chips at 9,500-9,800 RMB/ton delivered with acceptance. (Unit: RMB/ton)

3) Supply and Demand Situation: According to Longzhong's statistics, the production of caprolactam this week is 131,800 tons, and the production of polyamide 6 chips is 128,200 tons. The operating rate of nylon filament is 79.5%. The operating rate of the domestic weaving industry this week is 55.59%, a decrease of 0.24% compared to last week.

2. This Week's Market Analysis

During this cycle, the PA6 chip market prices remained stable, with mainstream prices at 9,250 yuan/ton for cash payment with short-distance delivery. The caprolactam market, influenced by the interplay of cost and supply-demand pressure, remained temporarily stable, leading to continued cost pressure on chips. On the supply side, some companies that had previously undergone maintenance resumed operations and increased their load, resulting in a higher market supply this week compared to last week. In the first half of the week, downstream buyers were cautious, but in the second half, just-in-time replenishment by downstream buyers improved the trading atmosphere for some low-priced chips. This cycle, the PA6 high-speed spinning chip market prices declined, with mainstream price ranges between 9,650-9,900 yuan/ton for cash payment with short-distance delivery. The caprolactam market saw slight fluctuations at low levels, and the high-speed spinning chip market faced significant cost pressure due to profit losses. However, many downstream spinning companies primarily restocked as needed, leading to limited demand. As a result, polymerization enterprises faced pressure to sell and engaged in sales negotiations.

3. Market Impact Factors Analysis

1 Raw materials: This week, the East China caprolactam spot market is mainly consolidating, with prices basically around 8,600 yuan/ton. The caprolactam market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Upstream benzene prices remain firm, resulting in significant cost pressure for caprolactam producers, who still have the willingness to maintain prices. However, the supply situation remains loose, and some end-users have reduced their demand. Downstream PA6 chips have seen localized slight declines, and polymerization enterprises are primarily purchasing raw materials on a demand basis while pressing for lower prices. The caprolactam market is temporarily unlikely to change its weak trend, with spot prices consolidating at low levels. As of Thursday, the East China caprolactam spot price stood at 8,600 yuan/ton delivered on acceptance.

As of July 24, 2025, the price of liquid caprolactam stood at 8,600 RMB/ton (delivered with acceptance), while regular PA6 fiber-grade chips were priced at 9,050-9,450 RMB/ton (cash ex-works). Based on these figures, the weekly average profit for regular PA6 fiber-grade chips was around -150 RMB/ton. As of July 24, 2025, the spot price of caprolactam was 8,600 RMB/ton delivered to East China, and Sinopec's weekly settlement price for caprolactam was 9,050 RMB/ton. The quoted price for high-speed spinning premium PA6 chips was 9,500-9,800 RMB/ton (delivered with acceptance to East China). Based on these prices, the weekly average profit for high-speed spinning premium PA6 chips was around -328 RMB/ton.

4. Forecast for Next Week:

The PA6 prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the coming cycle, with the mainstream price for conventional spinning chips likely to remain in the range of 9200-9300 yuan/ton for cash short delivery. The mainstream price for high-speed spinning chips of premium quality is expected to be in the range of 9500-9700 yuan/ton for acceptance delivery. 。 Key Focus Points: 1. Supply Side: The supply volume is expected to increase slightly in the next period, with some polymerization enterprises potentially raising their operating rates. 2. Demand Side: Downstream manufacturers mainly restock based on rigid demand, so overall demand may remain limited. 3. Cost Side: The caprolactam market is expected to undergo slight adjustments in the next period, with cost and supply-demand dynamics resulting in a stalemate and range-bound market performance. Going forward, attention should be paid to the impact of costs and supply-demand factors on market sentiment.