Outlook for the 3S Industry Chain in March 2025
Jinlianchuang
2025-03-04 10:15:36
In March, the trends of various products in the three S industrial chains may vary. Styrene and EPS are expected to experience range-bound fluctuations; butadiene will see interval fluctuations; acrylonitrile may weaken first and then stabilize, while ABS and PS markets might have the possibility of warming up after a decline.Styrene: The Two Sessions are about to be held, and the market has certain expectations for macro policy benefits. From the perspective of styrene itself, there is a certain reduction in the arrival of goods at the main ports of East China in March, and the accumulation of inventory has slowed down. There is no further possibility of intensifying the short-term supply-demand contradiction, and combining with the long-term trend, both the upstream benzene and styrene supply and demand margins have a potential trend towards improvement, which has potential support for the bottom price of styrene, and the continued adjustment strength is insufficient.At the same time, for the medium and short term, the cost support is average, the main downstream finished product inventory is high, and there is not enough momentum in the supply and demand fundamentals. Therefore, overall, there is no sustained upward momentum in styrene in March, and the market will mainly maintain a fluctuating range game.Acrylonitrile: The acrylonitrile market in March may initially decline before stabilizing. Next month, Lilva Yi and Yulong Petrochemical both plan to start up their production facilities, with expected operating rates rising to over 90%, which will significantly increase market supply pressure.The downstream industry's profit margins are relatively limited, making it difficult to significantly increase the operating rates, which leads to weak demand. However, considering that the current price of acrylonitrile is close to the cost line, if the loss situation worsens, it is expected that acrylonitrile production companies will maintain a relatively stable pricing strategy.Butadiene: Entering March, some downstream facilities of butadiene, such as those for polybutadiene rubber, have plans to restart, which will improve demand. Meanwhile, the upward price trend at the end of February will continue into early March. However, considering the limited maintenance of butadiene facilities, along with increased outbound shipments from Northeast China and high import volumes, the overall supply remains relatively abundant. Therefore, after an initial price increase, the market will face some pressure.However, as we enter the latter half of the month, the market will again speculate on the maintenance of butadiene facilities, and the market situation may rebound at that time. In March, the butadiene market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range.ABS: In March, most ABS facilities maintained stable production, with only a few facilities planning slight reductions. Domestic supply is likely to remain relatively high, coupled with the current high levels of petrochemical and market inventory, resulting in ongoing supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream demand may continue to grow, but it will be difficult to alleviate the supply-demand imbalance in the short term.From the cost perspective, the weak performance of raw materials continued into late February, and it is not unlikely that ABS petrochemical manufacturers may cut prices in March, further impacting market sentiment. Looking at the overall situation, it is expected that the domestic ABS market in early to mid-March still has room for a downward trend. In late March, with the consumption of available goods, there might be a possible recovery, but it is still necessary to closely monitor the progress of downstream demand.PS: In March, most PS petrochemical manufacturers maintained normal production, and some facilities still had expectations of restarting. The overall supply of goods was relatively sufficient, and the market inventory remained high. Although the demand from small and medium-sized downstream sectors was recovering slowly, it was difficult to significantly improve the contradiction between supply and demand. International crude oil prices may show a trend of rising first and then falling. The supply and demand of upstream pure benzene and styrene are expected to improve, providing potential support at the bottom of the styrene market, which will mainly maintain range-bound fluctuations.Overall, the domestic PS market is relatively weak, and after a period of consolidation, a slight upward movement cannot be ruled out.
EPS: In March, from the demand side, downstream factories are slowly recovering, previous inventory is gradually being consumed, and there may be low-price purchases, with a certain degree of recovery in new order negotiations.From the supply side, enterprises have accumulated large inventories, and there may be operations to reduce load or short-term shutdowns to alleviate inventory pressure and adjust supply-demand imbalance. From the cost perspective, the styrene market's rise and fall are both difficult to sustain, mainly maintaining range-bound fluctuations.From a macro perspective, with the upcoming Two Sessions, the market holds some expectations for macro-policy benefits, providing underlying support and making a one-sided downward trend unlikely. Against this backdrop, amid the interplay of cost and supply-demand dynamics, coupled with cautious and risk-averse sentiment among market participants this month, China's EPS market in March is likely to see narrow fluctuations. Close attention should be paid to real-time styrene trends and macro-policy impacts.
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