Oil prices see highest weekly gain in two months! Raw material prices surge by 1,000 yuan/ton, signaling the third round of collective price hikes.

I. Crude Oil Futures Market Dynamics

The market believes that the Asian economy and demand are expected to improve, and the instability in the Middle East still brings potential supply risks, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures May contract rose by $0.21 per barrel to $68.28, a month-on-month increase of +0.31%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures May contract rose by $0.16 per barrel to $72.16, a month-on-month increase of +0.22%.

II. Macro Market Dynamics

The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 93 billion yuan on March 21, with 180.7 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 87.7 billion yuan for the day. For the week, there was a total net injection of 378.5 billion yuan. In the next week, 1411.7 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature in the open market, and on next Wednesday, 3.5 billion yuan in central bank bill swaps will also mature.

Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with senior executives from foreign companies visiting China, including Eli Lilly, Broadcom, and Mercedes-Benz. In the coming period, another dozen or so executives from multinational corporations will visit the Ministry of Commerce, with American companies accounting for about two-thirds.

◎Ministry of Commerce Trade Negotiations Representative and Vice Minister Wang Shouwen met with Temasek Chairman Lim Boon Heng and his delegation. Both sides exchanged views on China's economic situation and Temasek's investment cooperation in China. Wang Shouwen stated that since 2025, China's economic operation has started smoothly, with a development trend towards new and better directions. The recently held National Two Sessions further released positive policy signals, boosting market confidence and expectations. At the same time, China will further expand its opening up, actively align with international high-standard economic and trade rules, increase efforts to attract and stabilize investment, create a better business environment, and better support the development of foreign-funded enterprises.

Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with BMW Group Chairman Oliver Zipse, and both sides exchanged views on topics such as BMW Group's cooperation with China and the EU's anti-subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles. Wang Wentao pointed out that history has proven many times that tariff wars and trade wars only result in a lose-lose situation. The Chinese side hopes to work together with the European side to become a pillar of the multilateral trading system, injecting certainty and stability into the world.

The President of Germany officially signed the amendment to the Basic Law, clearing the last hurdle for the German government's massive fiscal package financed through new debt. This huge fiscal plan will provide hundreds of billions of euros for defense, infrastructure, and climate investments.

◎Regarding the US "tariff stick," France and other EU countries are calling on the EU to be prepared to take strong countermeasures. The report states that the EU could consider imposing restrictions on trade, services, intellectual property, and government procurement access.

The White House stated that the UAE has committed to investing 1.4 trillion US dollars in the United States over the next decade, with a 25 billion US dollar investment plan focusing on energy infrastructure and data centers.

The Bank of Russia announced it will maintain the key interest rate at 21% unchanged, while emphasizing that it will reconsider raising the key interest rate if necessary. Additionally, the Bank of Russia will extend the restrictions on transferring funds overseas for another 6 months until September 30.

◎UK March CBI industrial orders balance -29, expected -30, previous -28; industrial output expectations balance -2, previous 8; industrial price expectations balance 22, expected 20, previous 19.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will discuss providing a new $20 billion loan to Argentina at an informal meeting next week. The IMF will also discuss setting up a four-year extended financing mechanism of about 15 billion Special Drawing Rights.

Three, early morning dynamics of the plastic market

Crude oil surged, and overnight, the main domestic plastic futures contract showed a narrow upward trend:

Plastic 2505 contract reported at 7694 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous trading day;

PP2505 contract is quoted at 7273 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous trading day;

PVC2505 contract is quoted at 5050 yuan/ton, up 0.5% from the previous trading day.

IV. Industry Chain Dynamics

On March 18, Jimei Jinghua Technology (Guangdong) Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating: Due to the increasingly tight supply of barite resources required for the production of sodium sulfide as a by-product of precipitated barium sulfate, our company has made every effort to secure and coordinate resources, hoping to absorb the various factors and cost increases resulting from the insufficient supply. After a very careful consideration of costs,It is decided that starting from March 18, 2025, our company will adjust the prices of some products as follows: the price of barium sulfate will be increased by 200 yuan per ton on the original price.

Recently, Hubei Qinba New Materials Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating: due to the significant increase in raw material prices recently, and with a continuing upward trend, the production cost of barium sulfate precipitate has been continuously rising, putting great pressure on the company's production and operation. Considering the actual situation of the company and adhering to the principle of mutual benefit,Starting from March 17, 2025, the price of our company's barium sulfate product will be increased by 200 yuan per ton on the existing price basis.

Guizhou Red Star Development Import and Export Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating:Starting from March 17, 2025, the company's barium sulfate series products will increase by 200 yuan per ton based on the current company's benchmark price.

Shaanxi Fuhua Chemical Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating: Due to the shortage of raw materials and the continuous rise in prices, leading to a constant increase in our production costs, the company has decided after research,Starting from March 17, 2025, the price of our barium sulfate product will be increased by 200 yuan per ton based on the original price.

Guangxi Lianzhuang Technology Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating: due to the continuous rise in raw material prices, causing our barium sulfate production costs to remain high, after research and decision by our company,Starting from March 17, 2025, the price of our company's barium sulfate products will be increased by 200 yuan per ton on the original price.

Pingli County Andeli New Materials Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating: due to the shortage of raw material mineral resources and the persistently high production and operation costs, it has been decided by the company's price committee,Starting from March 17, 2025, the price of barium sulfate will be increased by 200 yuan per ton.

▶Shenzhou Jiaxin Chemical Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating: Due to the severe environmental situation recently, large environmental protection investments, and the increase in the price of raw materials required, leading to an increase in product costs, based on the actual market demand,Our company will increase the price of barium sulfate by 200 yuan per ton from March 17, 2025.

Guizhou Yufulong Technology Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating: Due to the severe shortage and price increase of barite ore, the raw material required for the production of precipitated barium sulfate, leading to a significant increase in production costs, the company has decided: starting from March 17, 2025,Our company's barium sulfate product ex-factory price has been adjusted to 3300 yuan per ton.

According to relevant data, the domestic barium sulfate price has been continuously rising for 1 year. In 2024, the domestic precipitated barium sulfate price was 2800 yuan/ton, and by March 2025, the domestic precipitated barium sulfate price had exceeded 4000 yuan/ton, currentlyThe increase has reached 1000 yuan/ton, with the increase amounting to 42%。

According to industry analysts: the continuous rise in domestic barium sulfate prices is mainly due to an unusually tight supply of barite ore. In addition, the current market price of barium sulfate by-products has significantly declined, unable to provide more profit margins, causing many enterprises to hover on the brink of losses. Therefore, barium sulfate companies have no choice but to increase prices.

The price increase of raw materials such as titanium dioxide and barium sulfate will inevitably bring cost pressures to downstream enterprises, such as paint companies, likeNippon, Changsha Huatai, Oriental Yuhongand many enterprises have already started to adjust their prices.

V. This Week's Market Forecast

PP：The continuous expansion and increase in supply contrast sharply with the weak response from the demand side. The imposition of additional tariffs overseas has suppressed downstream export orders, coupled with a slow increase in domestic demand, dragging down the mainstream market transactions. The market's bottom support lies in the relatively stable cost side and the ongoing benefits of maintenance, alleviating the downward pressure on the market. In the short term, the market will revolve around the confrontation and game between supply and demand and the cost side. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate weakly around 7250-7450 yuan/ton, with close attention to changes in additional tariffs overseas, progress in destocking social inventories, and the status of demand-side variables.

PE：From the supply side, the Pucheng facility has entered a major maintenance state, while the rest of the facilities are mainly undergoing short-term shutdowns. There is still an expectation for the commissioning of the Inner Mongolia Baofeng Line 3 and the Shandong New Era LLDPE facility, so there is still pressure on supply. On the demand side, although the start-up rate of mulch film has increased, the pace has slowed down, and after the end of March, it will gradually enter the final stage, leading to a weakening of demand support. Therefore, overall, in the short term, the trend of polyethylene remains weak.

PVC：Current supply remains at a high level, but domestic downstream demand is still mainly driven by rigid demand, with poor performance of forward orders, and no improvement expected in the supply and demand fundamentals. At present, the supply of raw material calcium carbide is tight, with signs of price increases, and the cost bottom support is firm, coupled with good export data for PVC in January-February. Meanwhile, driven by foreign trade delivery and terminal restocking demand, industry inventory continues to decrease. Overall, the supply and demand of PVC continue to be in a tug-of-war, and it is expected that the PVC market will remain stable this week.

ABS：Last week, ABS fell for 5 consecutive days, with prices about to break through the "9000" mark. In the Dongguan market, the king of low prices, Zhe Petrochemical/211, is currently quoted at 9100 yuan/ton, just 101 yuan away from an "8" thousand quote. This week, the trend of ABS market prices is weak, with some manufacturers' facilities resuming operations, and production is expected to increase slightly. However, terminal demand remains weak, the surplus situation continues, and price expectations are bearish.