Oil prices rebound suddenly overnight, plastic futures all fall

1. Overnight Crude Oil Market Dynamics

On August 28: The instability of the Russia-Ukraine situation persists, coupled with the remaining benefits of the U.S. traditional fuel consumption peak season, leading to a rise in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the October contract rose by $0.45 per barrel to $64.60, an increase of 0.70% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for the October contract rose by $0.57 per barrel to $68.62, an increase of 0.84% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2510 contract fell by 5.3 to 481.1 yuan per barrel, while the night session saw a rise of 5.5 to 486.6 yuan per barrel.

Future Market Outlook

In the early hours, the market received news that German Chancellor Merz stated there would be no meeting between Zelensky and Putin. Oil prices, which had been moving within a narrow range due to a lack of drivers, began to rebound upon hearing the news, with a maximum increase of up to 1 dollar. The White House stated that Trump would later make further statements on the Russia-Ukraine issue, but as of the report's release, no further information was available. It is evident that the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue remains a focal point of market attention.

The current crude oil market is quite chaotic, as evidenced by the varying strengths and weaknesses of different oil types in the Middle East. Oil prices are fluctuating weakly under high resistance, but at the same time, there is also clear support at low levels. The oil market still has some unresolved issues that time will have to answer. In the short term, developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation introduce uncertainties to the market, and oil prices may surge due to geopolitical factors. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, the massive pressure on the supply side that the oil market faces is an inescapable certainty. During the price fluctuation process, it is recommended to focus on opportunities to sell short when prices are high, participate cautiously, and be mindful of timing.

2. Macro Market Dynamics

1. Federal Reserve - ①Cook formally sues Trump over dismissal scandal, Powell also named as defendant.Cook's lawyer claims that the mortgage dispute may have arisen due to a "clerical error."

②A U.S. judge is set to hold a hearing this Friday on Cook's lawsuit against Trump.The judge was nominated by Biden and is expected to ultimately appear before the Supreme Court.

Nominee for Federal Reserve Board of Governors nominated by TrumpMilan is expected to receive confirmation before the Federal Reserve's September decision.。

Federal Reserve Governor Waller:Support a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting.It is expected that there will be further interest rate cuts in the next 3 to 6 months.

IMF Deputy Managing Director: The market still believes in the Fed's independence, but the actual risks cannot be ignored.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn: Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve's independence could have significant global impacts on financial markets and the real economy.

2. Tariffs - ① The EU has proposed a legislative proposal to eliminate tariffs on some American goods in order to encourage the U.S. to reduce tariffs on automobiles.

②Unafraid of the threat of U.S. tariffs,India's September Russian oil imports are expected to increase by 10% to 20% month-on-month.。

Official from the United States:Parcels sent to the United States in the next six months will be subject to a uniform tariff of 80 to 200 USD.Afterward, taxes will be levied at a specific tariff rate.

3. Russia-Ukraine Situation — ① German Chancellor Merz:Zelensky and Putin will not hold a meeting.

American media: Europe proposes a 40-kilometer frontline buffer zone for Russia and Ukraine.

The Ministry of Commerce: Continue to impose anti-dumping duties on imported phenol originating from the United States, the European Union, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to Mexico possibly raising tariffs on China: China firmly opposes imposing restrictions on China under the coercion of others, under various pretexts, which harm China's legitimate rights and interests.

3. Plastic Market Dynamics

The night trading session saw a broad decline in plastic futures.

The plastic 2601 contract is reported at 7,339 yuan/ton, down 0.18% compared to the previous trading day.

The PP2601 contract is quoted at 7004 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous trading day.

The PVC2601 contract is reported at 4911 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous trading day.

The styrene 2510 contract is quoted at 7117 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from the previous trading day.

4. Forecast of Today's Market Trends

PP: It is expected that polypropylene will mainly fluctuate in the short term with a bearish trend, as the supply increase is anticipated to far exceed the pace of demand recovery.

PE: The fundamental supply and demand pressure has weakened, and the macroeconomic support has been strong recently. The price of PE may slightly increase in the short term.

PVC: In the short term, PVC prices are expected to have further room for decline. The fundamentals of the spot market are difficult to improve, and positive factors in the PVC market are hard to find, continuing to operate weakly.