Oil prices fluctuate and close with star line, short-term enters oversold repair market; plastic futures narrowly fluctuate, expected to maintain weak volatility today

1. Crude Oil Market Dynamics

On October 15th, concerns about oversupply risks and trade disputes initiated by the United States suppressing demand prospects led to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures November contract fell by $0.43 per barrel to $58.27, a decrease of 0.73% compared to the previous period. The ICE Brent crude futures December contract fell by $0.48 per barrel to $61.91, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures December 2512 contract fell by 7.6 to 444.9 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it fell by 1.9 to 443 yuan per barrel.

Future Market Outlook

Oil prices are entering a corrective phase after a period of volatility. The UK has announced a sanctions list, which includes Shandong Yulong Petrochemical, targeting entities that support Russia's energy sector. Given that Sino-Russian trade primarily uses the Chinese yuan for settlements, the impact on oil trade is expected to be limited. Following China's firm economic and trade measures, the U.S. Treasury Secretary has made several statements attempting to ease tensions. However, recent actions by European countries such as the Netherlands suggest that the U.S., together with Western countries and its allies, is exerting pressure on China. The progress of Sino-U.S. trade relations remains a focal point for the market. Until there are substantial de-escalation measures, market concerns are not alleviated, and investors are notably cautious, with a clear atmosphere of watchfulness.

API data showed a significant inventory build of 7.36 million barrels, far exceeding expectations. Recently, a consensus has emerged among some authoritative institutions and major physical market traders that the crude oil market will face significant oversupply pressure in the near future. Therefore, the performance of oil prices indicates that, despite a demand for correction due to overselling, the market has formed a consistent expectation, leading to limited willingness for capital to chase higher prices. As a result, the rebound potential for oil prices is constrained. In the short term, oil prices will continue to face a tug-of-war between weakening expectations and the need for correction due to overselling. It is expected that the market will experience fluctuations, and oil prices will maintain high volatility, requiring careful attention to market timing.

2. Macro Market Trends

Federal Reserve Board member Mester calls for a faster pace of interest rate cuts, butThe rate cut does not need to exceed 50 basis points.The above content is referred to asIt is realistic to cut interest rates twice more this year. ；Apart from gold, risk premium is not visible in the market.

The media reported that the Trump administrationTrump confirmed the news.

3、特朗普威胁：若哈马斯不遵守停火协议，其With a single order, Israel will resume operations.。

4. Trump: Modi assured me,India will not purchase oil from Russia.However, this move requires a process.

5. Trump accuses China of intentionally stopping the import of American soybeans, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): By the end of 2027, 28 million charging facilities will be built nationwide to meet the charging needs of over 80 million electric vehicles.

3. Plastic Market Dynamics

International oil prices fell overnight, and the main plastic futures contract fluctuated within a narrow range.

The plastic 2601 contract was quoted at 6,923 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous trading day.

The PP2601 contract reported at 6609 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous trading day.

Contract PVC2601 is quoted at 4693 yuan/ton, up 0.19% compared to the previous trading day.

The styrene 2511 contract is reported at 6,528 yuan/ton, down 1.21% from the previous trading day.

Section 4: Market Forecast for Today

PP: The upstream accumulated inventory is depleting slowly, and middle traders are actively reducing inventory but slowing down in receiving goods. At the same time, there is a lack of new orders in downstream factories, and the increase in production is slow, leading to insufficient consumption of raw materials. Coupled with the resurgence of international trade barriers, market sentiment is being dragged down. It is expected that the polypropylene market will fluctuate around the 6450-6650 yuan range today, with a focus on changes in demand and supply.

PE: With the gradual resumption of production in some facilities after the holiday, coupled with the expected release of new capacity and an increase in the volume of imported resources arriving at ports, the market supply is showing a relaxed pattern. The demand side is relatively subdued, with downstream factories mostly adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the pace of procurement is primarily driven by just-in-time inventory replenishment, providing limited support to spot prices. Given the weaker supply and demand fundamentals, it is expected that the polyethylene market prices will maintain a weak consolidation trend today, with mainstream prices possibly declining slightly by 10-50 yuan/ton.

PVC: Domestic PVC maintenance continues, but new production capacity continues to increase this month, keeping overall production at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic demand remains stable, while foreign trade is in a short-term wait-and-see mode due to policy and low-price competition. The market pressure of supply exceeding demand persists; carbide and ethylene are experiencing weak consolidation, with limited fluctuations in bottom support. The short-term outlook for the external macro environment is weak, affecting market sentiment on transaction prices. In East China, the expectation for the carbide-based PVC Type 5 is to fluctuate between 4550-4650 yuan/ton.