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New Moves in the Energy Chess Game: The Olefin Industry's Breakout Battle Behind the Sino-US LNG Supply Disruption

Plastic Vision 2025-03-20 20:59:26

I. The Reshaping of the Energy Supply Chain Triggered by the Disruption in Sino-US LNG Trade

According to Chinese customs data, as of March 20, 2025, China has gone over 40 days without importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, marking the longest 'gap period' since June 2023. This seemingly unexpected energy supply disruption is actually a microcosm of the deep adjustments in the global energy landscape and a key turning point for China's olefin industry to break through the 'chokehold' dilemma.

Despite US LNG accounting for only 5.4% of China's total imports (2024 data), its premium of 15%-20% per ton over Australian sources directly leads to a cost inversion for domestic gas-to-olefins enterprises. Data shows that when the US LNG landed price exceeds $30 per million British thermal units, gas-to-olefins enterprises incur a loss of 800 yuan for every ton of polypropylene produced. This compels Chinese buyers to decisively hit the 'pause button', redirecting 12 cargoes of US LNG originally bound for China to Europe, triggering a butterfly effect in energy trade across the Atlantic.

In this energy game, the 15-year LNG deal signed between Australia's Woodside Energy and China Resources Gas stands out. This agreement, which supplies 3 million tons annually, not only marks a new breakthrough in China's energy diversification strategy but also reflects a new energy order under the Sino-US trade friction — Russian pipeline gas, Australian LNG, and Middle Eastern spot gas are forming a multi-dimensional supply network. The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2030, China's LNG import sources will expand to 12 countries, forming a stable 'tripod' structure.

II. The Path to Breakthrough in the Olefin Industry Chain

In the face of the energy transformation, China's olefin industry has shown remarkable resilience. The three major process routes are undergoing unprecedented technological innovation:

Coal-to-olefins: With the help of green hydrogen coupling technology, Baofeng Energy has reduced methanol consumption to 2.8 tons/ton and decreased carbon emissions by 40%. In 2024, the profit per ton of coal-based polypropylene will exceed 1,000 yuan, becoming the industry's 'ballast stone'.

Gas-to-olefins: Enterprise innovates propane - propylene - hydrogen co-production model, reducing overall costs by 18% through value-added by-products.

Oil to olefins: Develop crude oil direct to olefins technology, reducing the sensitivity of raw material costs to oil price fluctuations by 60%.

III. Plastic Industry Revolution and Value Leap

This energy transformation is giving rise to a new industrial landscape: 9 million tons of coal-to-olefins projects planned in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and other regions are in full swing, with Baofeng Energy's 3 million tons/year project already in operation; at the same time, industrial upgrading is quietly accelerating, with R&D investment in high-value-added products such as EVA and POE surging by 70% year-on-year. More noteworthy is that the eastern route of the China-Russia natural gas pipeline is operating at full capacity, and the Central Asia-China natural gas pipeline has increased its transmission by 25%, providing a stable 'energy foundation' for the olefins industry.

In this energy war without gunpowder, China's olefin industry is writing a breakthrough legend with technological innovation and strategic layout. As American LNG ships change course in the Atlantic, China has already solidified its new line of defense for energy security, and the global energy landscape is tilting towards a more balanced direction.

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New Moves in the Energy Chess Game: The Olefin Industry's Breakout Battle Behind the Sino-US LNG Supply Disruption

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