"history's strictest" national level 7 is coming! phasing out oil vehicles, pricing new energy future, who will be eliminated?

The "strictest in history" National VII emission standards are being formulated, with the core goal no longer being simply exhaust treatment.but rather to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the entire commercial vehicle industry.This transformation will be like a strong whirlwind, having a profound impact on every link in the industry chain. For new energy vehicle companies, this is an unprecedented historical opportunity; while for the vast number of truck drivers, it is a "double-edged sword" filled with challenges and opportunities.

Transition to the dual management of "single vehicle emission limits + corporate average emission intensity"

Recently, Li Tianwei, Director of the Atmospheric Environment Department of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, stated at the 2025 China Automotive Industry Development (Teda) International Forum that efforts will be accelerated to advance the formulation of the National VI standards for light and heavy-duty vehicles.The approach to formulating the National VII standards will shift from the previous management of "single vehicle emission restrictions" to a dual management system of "single vehicle emission restrictions + average emission intensity of enterprises."

Single vehicle emission limit:The country will continuously raise the emission thresholds for new vehicles, setting stricter pollutant and greenhouse gas emission limits for each new car model to ensure a continuous reduction in emissions per vehicle.

Enterprise average emission intensity:The new policy introduces the global management tool of "corporate average emissions," elevating the regulatory perspective from individual models to the entire company. It comprehensively calculates the emissions of all models under a company and sets an overall average target. This means that even if each individual vehicle model meets the standards, the company will still face penalties for failing to fulfill corporate-level responsibilities if the overall average exceeds the limit.

In simple terms, the dual management mechanism requires automakers to meet the average emission intensity standards for their entire fleet, while each individual model must comply with the upper limit.

It can be seen that,The core of the China VI-b standards is to promote the "quality improvement" of the truck industry.The standard imposes near-extreme emission requirements on traditional fuel trucks, which substantially raises the technical threshold and manufacturing costs, posing a severe challenge to enterprises' cost control and technology integration capabilities. Small brands and outdated products that fail to meet the standards will be accelerated out of the market, thereby achieving survival of the fittest in the industry.

In contrast, for new energy trucks, the China VI emissions standards serve as a strong "tailwind." Due to their zero emissions during use, these vehicles more easily meet or even exceed regulatory requirements, significantly incentivizing automakers to allocate resources towards pure electric, hydrogen fuel, and other new energy technologies, providing a strong positive impetus for the industry's green transformation.

What is the impact on car companies/drivers?

The impact of the China VI emissions standards on new energy vehicle companies is direct and extremely positive.

The technical requirements and cost control for traditional fuel vehicles under China VIIB standards have reached their limits. Complex technical routes (such as more efficient SCR, DPF, EGR systems, etc.) will significantly increase the purchase cost and maintenance threshold of fuel vehicles. This invisibly removes the biggest competitive barrier for "zero-emission" new energy trucks (especially pure electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles). When the price of fuel vehicles exceeds that of new energy vehicles,The full lifecycle cost advantage of the latter will become more prominent.Market demand will be passively accelerated.

At the same time, to address China VI emissions standards,Traditional fuel vehicle giants may accelerate their transition to new energy.Seek cooperation with companies possessing the core "three electric" technologies of batteries, motors, and electronic controls to quickly meet the requirements of "corporate average emission intensity."This will bring new opportunities for technological output and joint ventures.At the same time, business model innovations in the aftermarket, such as battery swapping and maintenance services, will also experience a boom.

In summary, the China 7 emission standards serve as a powerful policy "boost" for new energy vehicle companies.It has pushed it from the market's "options" directly to the "main track" of future competition.

The impact on the driver group is more complex.

In the short term, the increase in purchase thresholds due to technological upgrades has led drivers to choose fuel vehicles that meet the China VII emissions standard or face higher purchasing pressure. At the same time, the after-treatment system of China VII fuel vehicles is extremely complex, requiring higher quality oil and urea. The delicate system may result in higher failure rates and maintenance costs, increasing uncertainty during operation.

In addition,After the implementation of National VI, the prices of second-hand fuel trucks that meet National V and even National VI standards may face a cliff-like decline.The depreciation of the driver's current assets will become a significant sunk cost.

In this way, the operational cost advantage of new energy trucks will be very obvious. Electricity costs are much lower than fuel costs, and maintenance is simpler. In the long term, this helps increase the actual income of drivers and encourages them to shift towards the new energy industry.

Conclusion

The National VII emission standards are far more than just an environmental regulation; they represent a profound industrial revolution. They pave a highway to the future for new energy vehicle companies and also mark a starting line for transformation and adaptation for millions of truck drivers. For all participants, only by proactively embracing change and planning ahead can they seize the initiative and navigate steadily through this green storm.