In most high-pressure weak decline processes, the Yan Shan high-pressure products remain relatively firm, especially the ace coating material 1C7A. Other Yan Shan high-pressure injection molding and ordinary film materials also maintain relatively firm petrochemical prices.
data source: Jinlianchuang
In the first quarter of 2025, domestic polyethylene capacity continued to expand, and the output from the capacity expansion in the fourth quarter of 2024 was continuously released. At the same time, affected by factors such as the Sino-US trade friction, the increase in demand fell far short of expectations, leading to a continuous decline in the market under the intensifying supply-demand contradiction. High-pressure products saw a slight rise after mid-February, but due to insufficient follow-up on the demand side, they briefly rose before falling again. In terms of timing, the market experienced a significant decline in January. During this period, on one hand, previously shut-down facilities were restarted, new capacities entered the market, and petrochemical companies and contract holders actively cleared their inventories before the holiday, increasing market supply; on the other hand, with the approach of the Spring Festival mini-holiday, intermediaries and downstream players showed little enthusiasm for restocking, leading to a contraction in demand. From late January to early February, the market was largely in a state of closure due to the Spring Festival holiday. After mid-February, as domestic downstream operations picked up, there was a localized recovery in linear product prices, with quotations slightly rising. However, after the downstream operations increased, purchases were mainly based on rigid demand, making it difficult for transactions to increase, and the upward trend in the market was restrained, with most of the time spent on consolidation. In March, although downstream operations improved and the domestic macro environment during the Two Sessions was favorable, overall demand still fell short of expectations. The new production capacities from the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 continued to be released, coupled with inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, resulting in ample domestic supply and slow resource digestion. Under the supply-demand contradiction, the market trend declined weakly, and under the pressure of all parties competing to clear inventories for transactions, prices repeatedly hit new lows.
March 23, 2025, domestic linear mainstream 7800-8100 yuan/ton, down 860-1200 yuan/ton from the end of the fourth quarter of 2024. High pressure 9350-10100 yuan/ton, down 600-700 yuan/ton from the end of last quarter. As of late March, high-pressure products remain weak, with a higher volume of imported high-pressure products, slow resource digestion, and high port inventory. Domestic production of high-pressure products is also high, with previous EVA facility productions such as Yanshan Petrochemical, Ningxia Baofeng producing high-pressure, and Wanhua Chemical's high-pressure facilities in operation. It is expected that there will still be a downward trend for high-pressure products. While most high-pressure products are declining, Yanshan high-pressure products are relatively firm, especially the premium coating material 1C7A, and other Yanshan high-pressure injection molding, ordinary film materials, petrochemical prices also remain relatively firm. The main reason is that Yanshan Petrochemical's polyethylene and upstream cracking facilities will undergo a major overhaul for about two months at the end of May, which is a scheduled maintenance following the routine of a major overhaul every four years.
There are not many coating material production lines in the country, with Yanshan Petrochemical and Zhongtian Hechuang accounting for 80% of the coating output, with Yanshan Petrochemical being the main one. Currently, the main products of high-pressure coating materials in North China are domestic materials such as 1C7A, LD251, 19G, etc., among which the recognition of 19G is much lower than that of 1C7A and LD251. The imported LG Vortex Coating LB7000 is close to 1C7A in aseptic packaging, and at the same time, 955, 722, 0710, 19N430 are close to 1C7A in some properties, but the supply of imported materials is unstable, and due to years of usage habits by downstream users in the country, there is still a preference for 1C7A. Compared to 1C7A, Yanshan Petrochemical's new high-pressure and low-pressure products receive less attention.
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