Halluz Strait Blockade Triggers Tape Base Market Chain Reaction

In the beginning of 2026, the global chemical market experienced a sudden "severe quake." With Israel and the United States launching a military strike against Iran, and Iran immediately retaliating by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated from potential threats to an actual crisis. This not only shook the global political and economic landscape, but also triggered a chain reaction in the commodity markets, especially in the tape base film and its upstream and downstream industrial chains, causing a progressively amplifying series of interlinked impacts.

1. Surging crude oil prices lay the foundation for costs, while intermediate feedstocks strongly push prices upward.

As a maritime chokepoint through which one-third of the world’s crude oil and a large volume of petrochemical products must pass, the Strait of Hormuz saw its shipping volume plummet to zero, sharply intensifying market panic over potential supply disruptions. On Monday, March 2, international oil prices surged immediately upon market open: NYMEX crude futures closed at USD 71.23 per barrel, rising 6.28% on the day; ICE Brent crude futures stood at USD 77.74 per barrel, up 6.68%. As the “lifeblood” of modern industry, the sharp rise in crude oil prices rapidly transmitted upstream pressure throughout the chemical industry chain. For adhesive tape parent rolls—whose two core raw materials, BOPP and butyl acrylate, occupy critical nodes downstream of crude oil in the petrochemical supply chain—cost pressures escalated abruptly.

The price of butyl acrylate has risen rapidly under the strong support of cost factors. The steady progress of resumption of work after the holiday had already brought some warmth to the market, and the comprehensive escalation of the geopolitical conflict has undoubtedly injected a shot in the arm, with suppliers firming up their quotations. Meanwhile, BOPP film, another major raw material, is also under heavy cost pressure. As the direct raw material for BOPP, the price of polypropylene is most directly driven by crude oil, and with the increase in new orders, film manufacturers have been forced to raise their ex-factory prices.

II. Sharp Increase in Adhesive Tape Jumbo Roll Prices

Under the dual pressure of upstream raw materials’ stress response and the strong upward push from midstream raw materials, the downstream adhesive tape parent roll market has become a “magnifier” of price fluctuations; facing simultaneous pressure from both upstream and downstream, parent roll manufacturers have no choice but to follow suit with price increases.

As of March 3, the mainstream market price for BOPP tape base film in the East China region has risen to RMB 9,000–9,100 per ton, an increase of RMB 400 per ton—or 4.62%—from the previous weekend. This price increase exhibits a pronounced stepwise amplification effect: minor fluctuations in upstream raw materials are magnified during downstream transmission due to panic-driven restocking and heightened speculative demand. Consequently, the BOPP and tape base film markets have rapidly heated up; downstream users, gripped by fear of further price hikes, have rushed into the market to build inventories, leading to a sharp short-term surge in trading volume that further solidifies the upward price trend.

III. Market Concerns and Outlook

As of March 4, geopolitical tensions continue, and their impact on the adhesive tape jumbo roll market is far from over. International oil prices have continued to rise in the following trading sessions, with WTI crude oil futures surpassing $74 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures climbing above $81 per barrel.

In the short term, the cost-driven uptrend is expected to continue. Driven by geopolitical risks, crude oil prices have entered a fast-rising channel, and the blockade of the strait means that this situation will last for some time. The likelihood of oil prices breaking through $100 per barrel has significantly increased, which will directly push up the costs of key raw materials such as polypropylene and butyl acrylate. Currently, the price of butyl acrylate has risen to 8,000 yuan per ton, and polypropylene to 6,600-6,750 yuan per ton. Under the rigid cost transmission, the price of tape base rolls is expected to continue to rise. However, the price range of 9,000-9,100 yuan per ton in the East China market has already shown a "price without market" stalemate, with limited actual transaction follow-up.

In the medium term, export markets face severe logistical disruption risks. China is the world’s largest exporter of tape base rolls, with exports exceeding 1.3 million tons in 2024. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has forced shipping routes from Asia to Europe to divert via the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit time by 10–15 days and potentially driving up container shipping costs by over 250%. Major shipping lines—including MSC and Maersk—have already raised freight rates for Europe- and Africa-bound routes, with some routes seeing increases of approximately USD 1,000 per TEU. This will significantly erode the competitiveness of domestic base rolls in European and African export markets, and already-shipped goods face risks of delayed delivery or even breach-of-contract claims.

Overall, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed the adhesive tape master roll market to a crossroads where multiple variables intersect. All links in the industrial chain must seek a new balance among cost control, export risk hedging, and demand forecasting.