Introduction: In February, the domestic PA66 industry chain prices mainly increased month-on-month, with sporadic declines; year-on-year, they mainly decreased, but butadiene saw the largest average monthly increase for 7 consecutive months, while caprolactam had the largest year-on-year decline for 4 consecutive months.

I. PA66 Industry Chain Monthly Price Fluctuation List

Unit: yuan/ton

Data source: Jinlianchuang

According to the monthly average price fluctuation statistics of the PA66 industry chain in February, a total of 7 products were involved, among which 4 products increased, 2 products decreased, and 1 product remained stable. The product with the largest increase was caprolactam, up by 4.80%, and the product with the largest decrease was butadiene, down by 1.06%.

In February, according to the year-on-year price fluctuation statistics of the PA66 industry chain, a total of 7 products were involved, with 6 products declining and 1 product rising. Among them, caprolactam saw the largest decline, falling by 20.33% year-on-year, and it has had the largest decline for 4 consecutive months; butadiene upstream saw the largest increase, rising by about 18.51% year-on-year, and it has had the largest year-on-year increase for 7 consecutive months.

II.PA66Industry Chain Product Market Overview

Pure Benzene:

In February, the domestic pure benzene market experienced a rise and then a decline. After the Spring Festival, the inventory accumulation in the main ports of East China was lower than expected, with cargo holders reluctant to sell at low prices, leading to firm benzene prices. As news about maintenance of some pure benzene facilities spread, the sentiment for price increases in the East China market grew stronger. Additionally, due to limited supply from the North, there was a need for restocking after the holiday, coupled with new shutdowns of individual local refineries. Given that refinery inventories were generally low, the spot market became tighter, leading to significant price hikes in the North. The rapid widening of the price gap between the North and South further boosted buying interest in the East China market. However, the low prices in East China constrained the high-price buying interest in the North, while downstream sectors continued to face high-cost pressures. More news about maintenance of downstream facilities disrupted market sentiment. Since the latter part of the month, international crude oil prices have been weakening, resulting in an overall weak commodity atmosphere, and the pure benzene market ended on a downward trend. By the close of 2nd27, the negotiated price for pure benzene in East China was around 7450-7470 yuan/ton, while factory quotations in North China were approximately 7450 yuan/ton.

Caprolactam:

This month, the domestic caprolactam market first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, during the Spring Festival holiday, the market atmosphere was flat, with no transactions. After the festival, factories still had intentions to raise prices, but as downstream and terminal markets had not fully returned, demand was insufficient, leading to a narrow consolidation in caprolactam quotations and light trading; mid-month, upstream raw material benzene prices showed strength, with Sinopec raising its benzene listing price, significantly strengthening cost support, which boosted the sentiment of market participants to hold firm on prices. Holders mainly offered high quotes, reducing low-price offers, and caprolactam spot quotations continued to rise. However, the recovery of downstream and terminal demand was slow, with a cautious approach towards high-priced goods, limiting the extent of the increase to some degree; late in the month, the upstream benzene sector weakened, with Sinopec lowering its benzene listing price, weakening cost support, and insufficient downstream demand, causing pressure to continue moving upward. The imbalance between supply and demand led to an accumulation of caprolactam inventory, putting pressure on negotiation atmospheres, further depressing market prices, with holders' spot quotations declining. By the end of the month, as of February 28, the average price of liquid caprolactam in East China for the month was around 11034 yuan/ton (6-month acceptance delivery), up 4.80% from the previous month, down 20.33% year-on-year, with the highest price appearing on February 14 at 11250 yuan/ton, and the lowest price on February 27 at 10650 yuan/ton.

Sinopec's February caprolactam settlement price is 11505 yuan/ton (for premium grade liquid self-pickup with June acceptance), an increase of 517 yuan/ton from the January settlement price. Balin Petrochemical and Balin Hengyi are both implementing this price.

Fujian ShenYuan and Nanjing Dongfang Chemical's February 2025 caprolactam settlement price is 11575 yuan/ton (for premium grade liquid self-pickup with three-month acceptance), an increase of 575 yuan/ton from the January settlement price.

Adipic Acid:

This month, the domestic adipic acid market continued to weaken, with a decline of around 500 RMB/ton. At the beginning of the month, it coincided with the Spring Festival holiday, and traders took leave, resulting in few transactions in the market. After the holiday, the market remained relatively quiet, with many downstream factories starting operations later, putting pressure on suppliers to sell, and fewer trade offers. By mid-month, some factories began to lower their fixed prices. Although the listed price of pure benzene was raised by 100 RMB/ton to 7750 RMB/ton, demand did not follow suit, and the market continued to weaken. After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed operations, but mainly consumed previous inventories, with little new purchasing activity. Market sentiment was bearish, and Hualu Hengsheng lowered its fixed price continuously. The listed price of pure benzene was also reduced by 200 RMB/ton, leading to weak high-price transactions and a strong atmosphere of waiting and watching in the market.

HMDA:

The listed price of hexamethylenediamine (HMD) manufacturers: Invista's March 2025 spot trading price for HMD is set at 21300 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the February listing. Chongqing Huafon and Ningxia Ruitai have both set their March HMD listed prices at 21300 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the February listings.

Butadiene:

In February, the domestic butadiene market showed a trend of first depression followed by a rise. As some oxidative dehydrogenation butadiene units restarted, the supply in the market increased, and at the same time, the downstream synthetic rubber trend declined. Under multiple negative factors, the butadiene market rapidly fell. However, as the butadiene price dropped to a low level, downstream enterprises started purchasing at low prices, significantly improving the trading atmosphere in the market. Sinopec reduced the butadiene price 66 times in February, with a total reduction of 17001700 yuan // ton, and then raised it once at the end of the month, with an increase of 600600 yuan // ton. By the end of the month, Sinopec's butadiene execution price was 1160011600 yuan // ton.

At the beginning of the month, during the Spring Festival, the butadiene market was closed, and prices tended to stabilize; after the holiday, the international crude oil prices weakened, reducing support for the cost of butadiene. Downstream buyers showed little enthusiasm for purchasing, and some merchants offered discounts to promote transactions, which slightly dragged down the center of the butadiene market. Around February 7th, as merchants had no pressure to sell, it was difficult to find low-priced goods in the market. Under the support of downstream latex factories' rigid demand and a stronger synthetic futures market, the price of butadiene experienced a brief upward trend. However, the downstream buying interest remained weak, with most purchases only maintaining contractual needs. The spot trading atmosphere in the market was lukewarm, and the weaker trend of downstream synthetic futures further pulled down the butadiene market price, without any noticeable improvement in transactions. Mid-month, as some oxidative dehydrogenation butadiene plants restarted, the supply in the market gradually increased. Some downstream industries were under profit pressure, limiting their enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Even some companies sold off butadiene, intensifying the cautious inquiry mentality downstream, leading to a significant drop in the price of butadiene. Towards the end of the month, as the price of butadiene fell to a low point, some downstream players entered the market to replenish stocks, coupled with the synthetic futures market stabilizing and warming up, the trading atmosphere in the market significantly improved. Traders were reluctant to sell, boosting the market quickly.

PA66：

In February, the PA66 market was weak, with a decline of 100 yuan/ton. During the month, which coincided with the Spring Festival holiday, trading activities were light, and there were no actual transactions. After the festival, as downstream operations resumed, although there was an intention to explore higher prices, the contradiction between oversupply and demand still existed, and downstream players were mostly digesting their previous inventories, making merchants cautious about entering the market, thus limiting high-end offers. In the middle of the month, the focus of the PA66 market shifted downward, with low demand from the downstream sector and a clear resistance to high-priced goods, resulting in sporadic small orders being made based on rigid demand. Traders lacked confidence in the future market, showing a strong willingness to sell, hence the negotiation space for actual transactions widened. The cost side still provided some support to PA66, limiting its decline. As of February 26, the mainstream price of PA66 was 17100-17400 yuan/ton.

PA6：

In February, the PA6 market stabilized and then declined, with a small decrease. In the first ten days, coinciding with the Spring Festival holiday, the PA6 market showed a stronger trend after the festival, as downstream sectors gradually resumed work, but the situation of supply exceeding demand still existed. The price of caprolactam, the raw material, increased, enhancing cost support. During the festival, some manufacturers saw a significant increase in inventory, and overall market transactions were limited, with general enthusiasm for terminal purchases, which were conducted on a case-by-case basis. In the middle of the month, overall, the downstream demand was limited, mainly replenishing stocks as needed, and downstream orders were cautious, focusing on consuming inventory raw materials. In the latter part of the month, cost support weakened, and manufacturers lowered their ex-factory prices due to inventory pressure, mainly selling at reduced prices. Downstream sectors mostly consumed inventory raw materials, showing poor purchasing enthusiasm, and the overall market transaction atmosphere was low. As of 2nd 26, the price of medium-viscosity PA6 chips was 11700-11900 yuan/ton.

Three, PA66 Industry Chain Market Outlook

In March, the cost side still provides some support for PA66, coupled with an increase in Invista's 3 March PA66 prices. The downstream market is gradually entering the traditional peak demand season, and inquiries and purchases may gradually increase. However, due to the gradual release of new facility capacities, the contradiction between supply and demand within the market intensifies, hence PA66 may undergo a range consolidation. The following are outlooks for each product:

Benzene:

In March, the National Two Sessions will be held in China, which may provide some boost to the macroeconomic situation. From the perspective of pure benzene, after a significant market correction in late February, the return of buying interest at low levels has supported the market's focus. As 4 April approaches and pure benzene gradually enters the spring inspection cycle, with the support of positive expectations for the future, operators are also more cautious about continuous low sales, making the bottom support of the market relatively solid. However, the downstream sector continues to bear high cost pressures, and news of maintenance on some downstream facilities is disrupting market sentiment. The rebound in pure benzene also lacks sustained momentum, and overall, the room for price fluctuations in March is relatively limited. Attention should be paid to the operation status of upstream and downstream facilities as well as macro guidance.

Caprolactam:

JLC (JinLianChuang) expects that the caprolactam market may continue to consolidate in 3 March. In 3 March, the international crude oil market will remain volatile. After a significant market correction in late February, the return of buying interest at low levels has supported the market's focus, and costs provide a decent level of support to the market. On the supply side, the Pingdingshan Shenma Phase II facility, with an annual capacity of 20 ten thousand tons, is scheduled for maintenance, which may lead to a downward adjustment in the overall operating rate of caprolactam. On the demand side, the recovery in downstream demand remains limited, maintaining just-in-time replenishment, with limited follow-up orders, and factories still face inventory pressure. Therefore, it is expected that the caprolactam market in 3 March will maintain a mild and stable trend. Operators are advised to proceed with caution and closely monitor raw material movements.

Adipic Acid:

The adipic acid market in 3 March is expected to experience a narrow and slightly weak fluctuation. Supply: There are no reports of plans for restarts or shutdowns at plants next month, and the industry's operating rate is expected to remain around 5-6%. Many factories have accumulated inventories, and the market supply is sufficient; Demand: In 3 March, the essential demand from downstream sectors may improve somewhat, as most downstream factory inventories have been largely consumed, but overall demand is not expected to see significant improvement compared to 2 February; Raw Materials: The bottom support of the benzene market is relatively solid, but news of some downstream plant maintenance has disrupted market sentiment, and the rebound in benzene also lacks sustained momentum. Overall, the room for price fluctuations in March is relatively limited; Market Sentiment: The contradiction between oversupply and demand remains, and operators' sentiment is generally cautious, focusing on following the market with essential needs.

Butadiene:

Entering 3 March, some downstream facilities of butadiene, such as the cis-polybutadiene rubber plants, have plans to restart, which will improve demand. The atmosphere of price increases at the end of 2 February is expected to continue into early 3 March. However, considering that maintenance on butadiene facilities is limited and there is an increase in external sales from the northeast region along with high import volumes, overall supply is relatively ample. Therefore, after reaching a peak, prices may face pressure. Nevertheless, towards the end of the month, the market may again speculate on the maintenance of butadiene facilities, potentially leading to another rebound. In 3 March, the butadiene market is expected to exhibit a range-bound fluctuation.

HMDA:

It is expected that HMDA prices will stabilize and be under observation in April 2025. The supply of HMDA in the market is sufficient, and the operating load of PA66 is insufficient, with downstream demand maintaining just-in-time replenishment.

PA66:

It is expected that the PA66 market will experience range-bound fluctuations in 3March. Invista's hexamethylenediamine price for 3March was 21300yuan/ton, an increase of 300yuan/ton from February. As for adipic acid: there have been no reports of plant restarts or shutdowns in 3March, with industry operation rates expected to remain around 50-60%. Many plants have accumulated inventory, leading to a well-supplied market. Cost factors still provide some support to the PA66 market. With domestic demand gradually improving, downstream buyers are making moderate replenishments when prices are low, coupled with increasing exports, resulting in a positive trend for overall PA66 demand. Market participants have mixed feelings about future prospects, creating a strong atmosphere of holding cash and observing, with cautious entry into the market. Therefore, it is anticipated that the PA66 market will fluctuate within a certain range.

PA6：

It is expected that the PA6 market will undergo a range-bound consolidation after a decline in March. In terms of upstream raw materials, the Pingdingshan Shenma Phase II 20 ten thousand tons/year caprolactam plant is scheduled for maintenance, which may lead to an overall downward adjustment in operating load, providing some support to the cost side of PA6. Domestic manufacturers are mostly operating at high and stable levels, with no shutdown or maintenance plans heard of yet, leading to a steady supply. There is no significant positive boost on the demand side, but the basic demand remains firm. The "Golden March" may boost market sentiment, though actual performance remains to be seen, and imports are likely to fluctuate slightly. Industry players are cautiously observing the future trend, lacking new information guidance. Traders are flexible in their operations, and transactions are mainly maintained at low prices, with some industry players lacking confidence in the future. Demand needs to recover, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is acceptable, with fixed orders and replenishments. New orders in the market are generally following up, and factory inventory pressure needs to be relieved. Coupled with the boost from the "Golden March and Silver April," demand may see a slight increase. Attention should be paid to downstream demand and raw material market trends.