[EVA Morning Brief] Domestic EVA Market Expected to Consolidate Next Week

1. Key Points of Concern

1 On August 28, according to Longzhong, the instability of the Russia-Ukraine situation still exists, coupled with the ongoing benefits of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract for October rose by $0.45 per barrel to $64.60, a week-on-week increase of 0.70%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract for October rose by $0.57 per barrel to $68.62, a week-on-week increase of 0.84%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures contract for September fell by 5.3 to 481.1 yuan per barrel, and increased by 5.5 to 486.6 yuan per barrel in the night session.

2 Ethylene: The ethylene market is expected to have a higher probability of a strong consolidation in the next cycle. In the East China region, the availability of ethylene spot resources for external sales will increase next week, and downstream procurement channels will expand. It is expected that the domestic price upward momentum will be slightly insufficient. In the dollar market, negotiations for October arrivals will gradually begin next week, and the market has a strong expectation for the dollar, with prices likely to remain firm. The transaction average price in the East China region is expected to be around 7,200 yuan/ton, while the dollar market is expected to range between 830-855 USD/ton.

Vinyl Acetate: The vinyl acetate market is expected to continue weak consolidation in the next period. The supply of vinyl acetate spot is abundant, and there is no short-term positive support on the demand side. The fundamentals continue to be under pressure, and there may be lower offers due to sales pressure. The bearish sentiment is strong, and it is expected that the market price focus will shift to the lower end next week.

Core Logic: Translate the above content into English and output the translation directly without any explanation. The cost side of ethylene is relatively strong and stable, while vinyl acetate shows a weak and stable trend, leading to weakened cost support. The supply-demand aspect of EVA provides strong support, with short-term petrochemical supply tightness offering additional support. Downstream demand continues to follow essential needs. It is expected that the market will maintain a stable and steady trend.

2. Price List Form

3. Market Outlook

Next week, the domestic EVA supply side is expected to remain strong, supporting the market, and factory prices may be further increased. However, the price rise may face resistance when transmitted downstream to the foam end. Traders who hold stocks have been actively selling off to realize profits this week, and downstream foam factories may focus on consuming previously stocked raw materials. Therefore, it is anticipated that the domestic EVA market will operate in a sideways consolidation pattern next week. The expected reference prices are: soft materials at 10,800-11,300 RMB/ton, hard materials at 10,200-11,000 RMB/ton, and photovoltaic materials at 10,200-10,500 RMB/ton.