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Demand is below expectations, plastic prices may decline?

Shumen City 2025-03-26 20:52:49

Futures opened higher but fluctuated downward, with weak cost support for crude oil and propylene, leading to loosened quotes from traders. In terms of receiving sentiment, due to the March demand peak being less than expected, downstream factories' willingness to receive goods is lacking, resulting in weak actual transactions. Recently, the market for PP and PE is primarily operating in a weak trend.

Yesterday, international oil prices fluctuated as the Russia-Ukraine conflict eased after talks in Riyadh and the continued decline in US consumer confidence offset the positive impact of the US plan to impose a 25% tariff on countries purchasing oil and natural gas from Venezuela. By the close, US oil closed at $69.00 per barrel, down 0.16%; Brent crude closed at $73.02 per barrel, up 0.03%. This morning, international oil prices continued to rise, with the market believing that the US tariff policy will certainly lead to tighter crude oil supply in the short term, thus boosting oil prices, indicating strong support from the cost side. In futures trading, PP/PE futures opened lower and oscillated downward, rebounded after noon, and ended with slight gains and losses. The oscillation in futures trading provided limited guidance for the spot plastic market. From the perspective of petrochemical companies, low inventory levels saw PetroChina and Sinopec's total inventory drop to 725,000 tons by March 26, down 25,000 tons from the previous day, a 3.33% decrease compared to the previous day and a 14.20% decrease year-on-year. Low petrochemical inventory is favorable for plastic spot prices. After two consecutive days of price increases, will PP and PE spot prices decline today?

From the market offers, the PE prices are mixed, with linear主流 prices currently at RMB 7,780-8,300 per ton. In the North China region, the linear price is at RMB 7,780-7,920 per ton, with some offers in the region retreating slightly by RMB 20-30 per ton. In the East China region, the linear price is at RMB 7,900-8,000 per ton, with some offers gradually increasing by RMB 50 per ton. In the South China region, the linear price is at RMB 7,950-8,300 per ton, unchanged from yesterday. In the Southwest China region, the linear price is at RMB 7,850-8,000 per ton, with some offers slightly decreasing by RMB 20 per ton. The LDPE price is at RMB 9,400-10,400 per ton. In the North China region, the high-pressure price is at RMB 9,400-9,500 per ton, unchanged from yesterday. In the East China region, the high-pressure price is at RMB 9,450-10,400 per ton, with some offers gradually increasing by RMB 100 per ton. In the South China region, the high-pressure price is at RMB 9,800-10,150 per ton. In the Southwest China region, the high-pressure price is at RMB 9,550-9,700 per ton, with some offers fluctuating by RMB 50 per ton.

The overall PP market price remains stable. Currently, the mainstream prices for wire drawing are reported at 7250-7490 yuan/ton. In North China, wire drawing prices are reported at 7250-7350 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday. In East China, wire drawing prices are reported at 7280-7430 yuan/ton, also unchanged from yesterday. In South China, wire drawing prices are reported at 7370-7490 yuan/ton, with lower prices rising slightly by 10 yuan/ton. In Southwest China, wire drawing prices are reported at 7220-7400 yuan/ton, with some prices slightly dropping by 50 yuan/ton.

The supply and demand situation shows that the concentrated production of PP in the market has begun, but there is an expected decrease in the overall operating rate, which alleviates some supply pressure. On the demand side, the situation is better for PP than for PE, as downstream demand for home appliances and daily necessities is recovering. For PE, Exxon has started trial runs, and in March, both Baofeng Phase 3 and Shanxi New Era will be put into production, resulting in a significant increase in supply. On the demand side, the operating rates for pipes, agricultural films, and packaging films are all rising rapidly, but overall demand remains weak. Due to the impact of tariff policies, downstream purchasing is limited to essential needs, leading to an average supply and demand performance.

In summary, futures opened higher but oscillated downward, with weak cost support from crude oil and propylene. Trade offers have loosened. In terms of buying sentiment, due to the March demand peak falling short of expectations, downstream factories have shown low enthusiasm for purchases, resulting in weak actual transaction volumes. Recently, the PP and PE markets have mainly been in a weak state.

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Demand is below expectations, plastic prices may decline?

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