I. Market Overview

On March 26, 2025 (Wednesday), Baichuan Yingfu tracked the average market price of calcium carbide method PVC at 4,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous working day, with a rise of 0.06%; the average market price of ethylene method PVC remained at 5,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day.

Today, the main PVC futures contract V2505 showed weak upward momentum, with the calcium carbide method PVC spot market exhibiting a mix of price increases and decreases. The mainstream market prices for calcium carbide method PVC in East and South China are concentrated between 4850-5000 yuan/ton (including tax and self-pickup). Today's PVC futures market has stopped rising and turned to decline, with overall spot prices in the PVC market showing mixed trends. The transaction focus in the mainstream markets of East and South China has slightly decreased, while prices in the Northwest region have seen slight increases. There are both fixed price and point pricing offers in the market, with point pricing transactions currently dominating. The operating rates of end-product manufacturers have not shown significant improvement. Due to the decline in futures prices, there has been a slight increase in inquiry willingness from end-users, but actual transactions remain focused on basic needs. No significant hoarding intentions have been reported, and production companies still face shipping obstacles, with industry inventories remaining at high levels. Today, the quotations for calcium carbide method PVC production enterprises in Inner Mongolia have increased by 50-110 yuan/ton, while other companies are maintaining prices and observing the market. The overall operating load of the calcium carbide method PVC remains relatively stable, with an operational load of 78.96% as of the time of writing, indicating ample production capacity.

Today, the EDC-PVC market mainly consolidated. The mainstream market prices in East and South China fluctuated between 5,100-5,400 yuan/ton (including tax and freight). Today, the overall EDC-PVC market price was mainly stable, with the transaction center in East and South China remaining largely unchanged. Today, EDC-PVC producers mostly maintained stable quotations, with some enterprises keeping their orders closed. The overall EDC-PVC operating rate slightly increased, and as of the time of writing, the overall EDC-PVC operating rate was 76.97%, with ample supply of goods. Downstream manufacturers maintained a low operating rate, with active inquiries scarce, and actual trading feedback remained lukewarm.

II. Market Forecast

In terms of production: There are no new maintenance shutdowns today, and the overall operating rate of PVC is likely to fluctuate slightly. The supply side still appears to be in surplus.

In terms of raw materials, the calcium carbide market remains stable with no fluctuations, and the cost pressure for PVC has not changed significantly.

Comprehensive Forecast: Overall, PVC futures lack upward momentum, with frequent fund flows in the market. At the same time, the PVC market is constrained by prominent supply-demand contradictions, and downstream resistance to high-priced sources is strong. Therefore, the market price lacks substantial support for upward trends. It is expected that tomorrow's PVC spot market prices may fluctuate weakly, with a projected decline of around 10-20 yuan/ton.