China's additional 34% tariff on US-origin imports and its brief analysis of the impact on domestic metallocenes

[Policy Background] On April 2, 2025, the U.S. government announced the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods imported into the United States. On April 4, 2025, the State Council Tariff Committee issued an announcement that starting from 12:01 on April 10, 2025, tariffs would be imposed on imported goods originating from the United States. The relevant matters are as follows: 1. An additional 34% tariff will be imposed on all imported goods originating from the United States based on the current applicable tariff rates. 2. The current bonded and preferential tax policies remain unchanged, and the additional tariffs imposed this time will not be exempted. 3. For goods that have been shipped from the place of departure before 12:01 on April 10, 2025, and are imported between 12:01 on April 10, 2025, and 24:00 on May 13, 2025, the additional tariffs stipulated in this announcement will not be imposed.

The import of raw materials from the United States into China, subject to a 34% tariff, will have multi-faceted effects on domestic metallocene polyethylene.

1. Supply gap and price increase

According to********statistics, North America is currently the world's leading producer of metallocene polyethylene, followed by Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia. In the North American and Southeast Asian production areas, ExxonMobil has a higher capacity share, followed by Dow; in the Northeast Asian production area, South Korea and China have leading capacities, but China's effective capacity is low, and regional supply shortages often rely on imports.

North America is a resource-exporting region, with the United States having the largest export volume. According to statistics, the production capacity of polyethylene in the US is close to 7 million tons, and its products are mainly exported to South America, Southeast Asia, and China. According to a survey by Longzhong Information, imports from the US account for about 25% of China's polyethylene imports. In the short term, the rise in import costs from the US will have a certain impact on domestic polyethylene prices. The imposition of tariffs will directly increase the price of its products in the Chinese market, weakening their competitiveness.

2. Adjustment of Import Structure and Acceleration of Domestic Production

Currently, China's imports of polyethylene from Majors mainly come from Singapore, Thailand, the Middle East, South Korea, and the United States. In the future, with the increase in import costs from the United States, the proportion of imports from other production areas will rise accordingly. In 2025, the ExxonMobil Huizhou facility will commence production, which will replace imports from Singapore and North America. Resources from North America and Singapore, aside from self-use, will flow to Europe and other countries. Additionally, as Singapore serves as a major transshipment hub, some goods from the Middle East and North America are stored and transshipped in this area; in the future, with the increase in import costs from the United States, the transshipment proportion in Singapore will also rise.

Domestic companies (such as Sinopec, CNPC, and private enterprises) have already entered the production of metallocene polyethylene, but the capacity remains limited (in 2024, the domestic share was less than 30%). Tariff policies will encourage local companies to join the production of metallocene polyethylene, but technical barriers (such as severe product homogenization and a single product range) may slow down the substitution rate.

3. Increased costs of downstream raw materials and terminal products

Based on the earlier situation of the United States imposing additional tariffs, the 10% tariff increase starting from March 4th in the United States mainly involves plastics products under Chapter 39 of the United States Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS), including plastic daily necessities such as storage boxes, children's toys, and bathroom products. According to statistics, in 2024, the proportion of China's export volume of plastic products to the United States in the total export volume fell to 20.48%, and the proportion of export value fell to 21.28%. After the United States imposed additional tariffs, the overall trend of China's plastic products export value to the United States will continue to decline.

Domestic metallocene polyethylene is mainly used in agricultural film, food and daily chemicals, floor heating pipes, industrial packaging and other fields. Imported metallocene polyethylene is mostly used in high-end film fields, where the proportion of imported metallocene added in single material films is relatively high, leading to an increase in raw material costs and export costs, resulting in a significant reduction in enterprise profits, forcing downstream companies to accept high prices or seek alternative raw materials.

Overall, the impact of US tariff increases on China's market for metallocene polyethylene products is multi-faceted. The rise in import costs from North America will inevitably lead to changes in global trade patterns. Currently, China imports most of its metallocene polyethylene from Southeast Asia and the Middle East. In recent years, imports of metallocene polyethylene from North America have been decreasing, so the impact of tariff increases on China is limited. In the short term, domestic high-end polyolefin products are still in the process of breaking through the "chokepoint," and complete substitution of imports will require time. However, the startup of the Exxon plant in Huizhou will reduce the import cost of China's metallocene polyethylene, easing the cost pressure on downstream enterprises. Although it will have some impact on the supply of China's metallocene polyethylene market in the short term, from a long-term perspective, it also provides an opportunity for the restructuring and transformation and upgrading of China's metallocene polyethylene industry.