Can 180,000 New Energy Heavy Trucks Be Achieved by 2025?

Under the dual drive of the "dual carbon" policy and market forces, the electrification of heavy-duty trucks has become an irreversible trend. The latest data on green heavy-duty trucks shows that from January to June 2025, a total of 79,710 new energy heavy-duty trucks were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 184.68%. Among them, 18,103 new energy heavy-duty trucks were sold in June alone, a year-on-year increase of 158.17%, setting a new monthly sales record.

Electric heavy-duty trucks have demonstrated excellent power performance and lower operating costs in the short-haul transportation sector, earning the trust of users and becoming the preferred model in this field. The expanded application of large-battery electric heavy-duty trucks has increased their range, accelerating the replacement of traditional heavy-duty trucks with electric ones.

At the beginning of this year, Green Heavy Truck predicted that the sales of new energy heavy trucks this year would exceed 130,000 units (as previously published). Based on the market development trend, it can be foreseen that the market sales in 2025 will far exceed this achievement. According to Green Heavy Truck's research, industry ecosystem enterprises such as new energy heavy truck manufacturers, operators, charging and battery swapping companies, component companies, and financial institutions are all optimistic about the development prospects of new energy heavy trucks and are confident in this year's market performance. Some industry insiders believe that the total market sales in 2025 will reach 180,000 units.

Continued policy support

Since the beginning of this year, national and local relevant departments have continuously issued policies to support the development of new energy heavy-duty trucks.

On April 25, ten ministries including the Ministry of Transport jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Integrated Development of Transportation and Energy". The Guiding Opinions specify that by 2027, electricity will account for 10% of end-use energy consumption in the transportation industry, and the proportion of new energy vehicles among newly added automobiles will increase year by year. By 2035, pure electric vehicles will become mainstream among newly sold vehicles, new energy heavy-duty commercial vehicles will be applied on a large scale, and a green fuel supply system for transportation will be basically established.

Continuously promote the application of new energy vehicles in urban public transportation, taxis, postal and courier services, urban freight distribution, ports, airports, and other fields; accelerate the elimination and replacement of national Stage IV and below standard commercial vehicles; promote the large-scale application of new energy heavy-duty trucks (trucks) according to local conditions; and develop zero-emission freight transport.

On March 18, the Ministry of Transport, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a notice on the implementation of the scrapping and replacement of old commercial freight vehicles, and published the subsidy standards for the scrapping and replacement of old commercial freight vehicles in 2025 in the form of an attachment.

Green Heavy Truck has learned that the subsidy standards for scrapping and updating old operational trucks in 2025 will be roughly the same as in 2024. The biggest highlight is that the "subsidy standard for newly purchased National VI emission standard operational trucks" no longer specifically emphasizes "diesel vehicles." This means that natural gas heavy trucks, which have been very popular in the past two years, are now included in the scope of subsidies.

On March 18, the Ministry of Transport, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a notice on the scrapping and renewal of old operational freight vehicles. The notice clearly states the acceleration of scrapping high-energy-consuming and high-emission old trucks, and provides financial subsidies for the scrapping and renewal of old operational freight vehicles. The subsidy policy will be implemented from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025.

The subsidy standards include: 1. Subsidy for scrapping and purchasing new energy cargo trucks = subsidy for early scrapping of old operating cargo trucks + subsidy for purchasing new energy operating cargo trucks (after calculation, the maximum subsidy can reach 140,000 yuan per vehicle). 2. The subsidy standard for purchasing new energy urban cold chain delivery trucks only is 35,000 yuan per vehicle. The funding support is implemented based on an overall 9:1 principle of central and local sharing, with the central government bearing 85%, 90%, and 95% of the costs in the eastern, central, and western regions respectively.

In various regions, provinces and municipalities such as Yunnan, Henan, Shanghai, Sichuan, Shanxi, Anhui, Beijing, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hunan, Heilongjiang, and Zhejiang have released policies to support the replacement of old trucks with new ones, promoting new energy heavy trucks by providing road rights, financial subsidies, and reductions in highway toll fees.

In local cities such as Dongguan, Datong, Luohe, Ningde, Xinyang, Shiyan, Linyi, Zunyi, Chengdu, and Shenzhen, policies related to new energy have been continuously released to promote the construction of charging and battery swapping stations and hydrogen refueling stations, and to support the promotion and application of new energy heavy trucks.

Large battery capacity and ultra-fast charging drive the expanded application of electric heavy-duty trucks.

With the continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices and the reduction in power battery costs, the prices of electric heavy trucks have dropped, which has also driven the rapid increase and expanded application of large-capacity electric heavy trucks.

Large-capacity electric heavy trucks have significantly enhanced the driving range of electric heavy trucks, effectively alleviating users' concerns about range anxiety and enabling them to handle longer distances and more complex transportation tasks.

In the field of short-haul transportation within 300 kilometers, electric heavy trucks have achieved large-scale application, particularly excelling in closed scenarios such as ports, mining areas, and logistics parks. In the medium and long-distance transportation sector of over 300 kilometers, electric heavy trucks are also beginning to expand pilot operations.

Since the beginning of this year, ultra-fast charging technology has developed rapidly. Ultra-fast charging solutions based on 800V high-voltage architecture and liquid cooling technology have greatly reduced the charging time of electric heavy trucks to less than 30 minutes, significantly improving their energy replenishment and operational efficiency. This not only alleviates users' range anxiety, but also further narrows the gap in convenience of use between electric heavy trucks and traditional fuel vehicles.

The application of ultra-fast charging technology in the heavy truck sector not only significantly improves vehicle attendance rates and operational efficiency by reducing downtime caused by charging but also greatly enhances the adaptability of electric heavy trucks in high-intensity, high-frequency operational scenarios such as port shuttle, mining transportation, and intercity trunk lines. Additionally, it further optimizes the utilization efficiency of charging infrastructure.

The development of high-capacity and ultra-fast charging technology makes electric heavy-duty trucks more competitive, attracting more users to choose electric heavy-duty trucks, which will drive the continuous rapid growth of electric heavy-duty truck sales.

Large orders keep coming in, and operational scale continues to expand.

In the first half of this year, the new energy heavy-duty truck market surged ahead, with sales approaching the total sales of last year (82,723 new energy heavy-duty trucks sold in 2024). As the second half of the year kicked off in July, vehicle deliveries and contract signings continued to soar.

On the afternoon of July 7th, the "Junli Transport & SANY Heavy Truck 25 Electric Tractor Delivery and 100 Units Strategic Signing Ceremony" was successfully held amid a warm atmosphere.

In early July, the FAW Jiefang New Energy Feed Truck New Product Launch Conference, themed "Driving the New Power of Electricity, Cultivating the New Future of Feeding," concluded in Chengdu. FAW Jiefang signed a strategic cooperation agreement with a major client for the first batch of 139 vehicles. The two parties will engage in deep cooperation in areas such as purchasing and promoting new energy vehicles and building an upstream and downstream ecosystem.

On July 16th, under the theme of “Greening the New Silk Road, Creating a Smart New Ecosystem,” the strategic cooperation signing ceremony between Skyworth Auto and a major client for 500 new energy heavy trucks, as well as the delivery ceremony for the first batch of 100 vehicles, was held in Mulei Kazakh Autonomous County, Xinjiang. At the event, Skyworth Auto and the major client officially signed a strategic cooperation agreement for 500 new energy heavy trucks and completed the delivery of the first batch of 100 pure electric tractors.

On July 18th, the "Delivery Ceremony of 200 Sinotruk Chengdu V7-X New Energy Heavy Trucks and 100 Battery Swap Trucks & Charging and Swapping Station Strategic Cooperation Signing Ceremony" was held in Chengdu. At the event, in addition to the first batch of 200 units of 400 kWh battery swap new energy vehicles delivered, representatives from Sinotruk Chengdu, CATL, and Bashu Logistics jointly signed the "100 Battery Swap Heavy Trucks & Charging and Swapping Station Strategic Cooperation Agreement," marking the beginning of a new chapter in their collaboration.

In mid-July, XCMG delivered a batch of 400-degree pure electric tractors to an East China customer for use in port logistics transportation.

On July 20th, at the "Chenglong Night" event in Yuncheng organized by Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Co., several star products such as the Chenglong H5 electric tractor and Chenglong H7 Pro single-axle truck were launched, targeting niche market scenarios like coal transportation, medium to long-distance freight transport, and express delivery. These offerings provide customized solutions for transportation scenarios in the Shanxi region, with 93 vehicles (including electric heavy-duty trucks) ordered on-site.

On July 22, the "FAW Jiefang & Jiangxi Lvfeng & Yichun HuaqI 200 New Energy Vehicles Delivery Ceremony" was held. At the event, FAW Jiefang and Yichun HuaqI jointly signed a cooperation agreement for a second batch of 500 new energy vehicles.

In late July, 200 XCMG new energy heavy trucks were rapidly assembled and delivered to users in the North China region, heading to local sand and gravel transportation and urban construction frontlines. The delivered products include multiple models such as 433-degree tractor trucks, 600-degree tractor trucks, 800-degree tractor trucks, and 433-degree dump trucks, which have been highly favored in the market due to their numerous cutting-edge technologies and outstanding performance.

On July 29, the "Qixin Cooperation, Driving Electric Win-Win - Chery Commercial Vehicles Jointly with Heavy Trucks & Zhongke Guomai Auto, Electric Qilin Batch Delivery Ceremony" was held at Qingdao Port. The first batch of 10 Electric Qilin vehicles was officially delivered.

On August 8th, in Fengcheng, Jiangxi, a grand ceremony was held for the strategic signing of 150 electric heavy trucks between SANY Heavy Trucks & Zhuoxin Logistics and the delivery of the first batch of 50 trucks.

More automotive companies are signing contracts and delivering new energy heavy trucks, continuously updating and iterating their models, and launching vehicles that are better suited for specific operational scenarios. This has promoted the development of new energy heavy trucks and expanded the market space for these vehicles.

The electrification of heavy-duty trucks is an irreversible trend, and the development and adoption of new energy heavy-duty trucks have become the general direction.

With continuous advancement in policy support and technological progress, the application scenarios of new energy heavy trucks are steadily expanding, gradually extending from short-haul transportation to medium- and long-distance transportation.

In specific scenarios such as mines, ports, and logistics parks, new energy heavy trucks are gradually replacing traditional fuel vehicles due to their advantages of zero emissions, low noise, and high adaptability. Meanwhile, upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain are also accelerating the deployment of charging and battery-swapping infrastructure to ensure the efficient operation of new energy heavy trucks.

Nowadays, with a decrease in bulk cargo sources and low freight rates, the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) advantage of new energy heavy trucks is evident, making them the preferred model for logistics and transportation companies to reduce costs and increase efficiency. They have also become the top choice for short-distance transportation, which will inevitably promote the development of the new energy heavy truck market and increase sales of new energy heavy trucks.

The goal of selling 180,000 new energy heavy trucks this year is likely to be achieved.