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As demand follows a weak trend, will the focus of plastic prices continue to shift downward?

Plastic City 2025-03-20 20:25:09

Policy benefits driving effectiveness have slowed down, tariff policies have intensified, supply has gradually increased, and demand is weak, with more bearish factors in the market. Recently, PP/PE prices continue to mainly adjust downward, with a decline of 50 yuan per ton.

Yesterday, international oil prices slightly increased, as concerns over a global economic slowdown, trade worries, and progress in ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine offset the impact of instability in the Middle East on the supply side. By the close of trading, U.S. oil closed at $67.16 per barrel, with a gain of 0.39%; Brent oil closed at $70.78 per barrel, with a gain of 0.31%. The current economic uncertainty has overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions on the oil market. The latest warning from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) stated that the tariff policies of the Trump administration may drag down the economic growth of the United States, Canada, and Mexico, thereby affecting global energy demand. Therefore, recent oil price increases have been weak, and their influence on the plastic market is not strong. In terms of futures, PP/PE futures opened lower today but rose later, falling again towards the end. By the close, PP futures showed an increase, while PE futures experienced a slight decline, with mixed gains and losses, providing limited guidance to the spot plastic market. Regarding petrochemicals, as of March 20th, the inventory of the two major oil companies for plastics was 785,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 1.88%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%. The low petrochemical inventory temporarily benefits the spot plastic quotations. Currently, the guidance for the plastic market is weak, and weak demand is putting pressure on spot plastic quotations, leading to a slight decline in PP/PE prices.

From the market quotation, PP prices have slightly declined. The mainstream price for drawing is 7200-7490 yuan/ton. In the North China region, the drawing price is 7200-7300 yuan/ton, with regional quotations gradually probing 40-50 yuan/ton lower. In the East China region, the drawing price is 7260-7420 yuan/ton, with low-end quotations slightly declining by 10 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the drawing price is 7350-7490 yuan/ton, with some quotations slightly declining by 10 yuan/ton. In the Southwest China region, the drawing price is 7220-7400 yuan/ton, with low-end quotations slightly declining by 10 yuan/ton.

The PE market quotations slightly declined, with the current mainstream price of linear products at 7850-8330 yuan/ton. In the North China region, the price of linear products is 7850-7920 yuan/ton, and quotations in the region have gradually decreased by 50-70 yuan/ton. In the East China region, the price of linear products is 7850-7980 yuan/ton, and quotations in the region have gradually decreased by 20-100 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of linear products is 7950-8330 yuan/ton, and quotations in the region have gradually decreased by 20-80 yuan/ton. In the Southwest China region, the price of linear products is 9700-9850 yuan/ton, and quotations in the region have gradually decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The high-pressure prices have also gradually declined, with the mainstream quotation at 9420-10650 yuan/ton. In the North China region, the price of high-pressure products is 9420-9450 yuan/ton, and quotations in the region have gradually decreased by 60-100 yuan/ton. In the East China region, the price of high-pressure products is 9500-10650 yuan/ton, and the lower-end quotations have slightly decreased by 50 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of high-pressure products is 9700-9850 yuan/ton, and quotations in the region have gradually decreased by 50-100 yuan/ton. In the Southwest China region, the price of drawing products is 9700-9850 yuan/ton, and quotations in the region have gradually decreased by 50 yuan/ton.

On the supply and demand side, there is a possibility of new production from facilities such as Shandong New Era and Inner Mongolia Baofeng No.3, which puts some pressure on supply. Downstream demand is weak, with limited new orders and a low willingness to replenish inventory. For PP, the market demand is characterized by limited order follow-up, with most purchases being for immediate needs to maintain production. Currently, there are no new capacity expansions, and the market pressure is alleviated by the positive impact of maintenance activities.

In summary, the effectiveness of policy benefits is slowing down, tariff policies are intensifying, supply is gradually increasing, and demand is weak. There are more negative factors in the market. Recently, PP/PE prices continue to mainly adjust downward, with a decline of 50 yuan per ton.

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As demand follows a weak trend, will the focus of plastic prices continue to shift downward?

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