The Trump administration imposed a cumulative tariff of 20% on Chinese goods imported into the U.S. If Congress were to revoke China's "Permanent Normal Trade Relations" (PNTR) status, the total tariff could skyrocket to 68%, significantly impacting industries such as food and beverages, electronics, and textiles. It is estimated that this would lead to a decrease in exports to the U.S. by 6-9 percentage points.

However, China's automobile export dependence on the US is only about 0.5%, and new energy vehicles achieve a doubling of export volume in 2024 through the "Belt and Road" initiative (such as Russia, the Middle East), partially offsetting the impact of a 100% electric vehicle tariff. However, automobile parts exports face a severe test, with exports to the US reaching 10.1 billion US dollars in 2024, and 30% of US car companies' components rely on China, forcing the supply chain to accelerate "de-Chinaization" under tariffs.

Challenges also bring opportunities: The EU, Japan, and South Korea are turning to China for cooperation due to U.S. tariffs, accelerating regional economic integration under the RCEP framework; the process of domestic substitution in fields such as semiconductors and chips has significantly accelerated; China is showcasing greater economic resilience by expanding domestic demand and promoting upgrades in high-end manufacturing.

The United States has imposed a 25% tariff on automobiles and auto parts, directly impacting Mexico (which relies on the United States for 3 million vehicle exports) and Japan and South Korea (where auto exports to the United States account for more than 25% of their vehicle production). To avoid rising costs, automakers may turn to China for purchasing auto parts, accelerating the "de-Americanization" of the global supply chain. However, American automakers also face difficulties: 30% of their auto parts depend on China, causing an increase in the cost per car of $3,500 to $12,000, weakening their global competitiveness.

Trade confrontation is becoming cyclical: The EU plans to impose tariffs on American technology products, while China counters by restricting imports of soybeans, corn, and liquefied natural gas from the U.S., and limiting exports of rare earths. The global trade tensions are escalating, and the WTO's dispute resolution mechanism is paralyzed due to U.S. obstruction of judge appointments, further eroding the authority of the multilateral system. Economies like Mexico and South Korea, which are heavily reliant on the U.S. market, face the risk of recession.