Alpha olefins, known as the "chip of the new materials industry," china to achieve dual breakthroughs in technology and production capacity

In the high-end polyolefin industry chain, linear α-olefins are absolutely the most critical raw materials, and due to technical reasons, they have long been restricted by others, earning the reputation as the "chip of the new materials industry."

According to the latest industry in-depth report released by Donghai Securities,2025-2026The year our countryLAOThe peak of equipment commissioning is coming.

China has ushered in a historic moment for the alpha olefin industry, and the competitive landscape of the global high-end polyolefins is set to be reshaped.

The global alpha olefin landscape is dominated by North America and is highly concentrated.

From the current global industrial landscape, the alpha olefin industry is still highly concentrated in North America, and the global alpha olefin capacity...62%Concentrated in North America.

The top five manufacturers (including Chevron Phillips, Shell, INEOS, etc.) together account for a share of global capacity.86%Chevron Phillips ranks first in production capacity, accounting for the global total production capacity.28%It can be described as a high degree of market monopoly.

High-end product capacity is close to demand.

The main demand for global alpha olefins is also in North America, accounting for the global consumption.35.8%Northeast Asia accounts for21.6%Western Europe accounts for14.3%The rest of the world shares the remaining three dou.

From the perspective of downstream applications, α-olefins account for the highest proportion in polyethylene and polyolefin elastomer copolymer monomers, reaching...67%The second largest is synthetic lubricating oil base oil based on polyalphaolefin (PAO).PAO), accounting for10.6%。

This highly concentrated pattern on both the supply and demand sides has also led to alpha olefins becoming a bottleneck in the development of new chemical materials in China.

Especially ethylene and high-carbon α-olefins (1-Butene,1-Propylene,1-Random copolymer elastomers of in-situ polymerization (such as octene).POEThe quality and stability requirements for α-olefins are extremely high.

POEImport substitution, the enormous demand in the photovoltaic industry

POEIn the material, the crystalline regions of polyethylene chains act as physical cross-linking points, exhibiting typical plastic properties. After the addition of α-olefin, an amorphous region with rubber-like elasticity is formed, creating a unique structure. POE Exhibit the dual characteristics of rubber and plastic.

Special performance makesPOEMaterials can be more widely used in photovoltaic films, automotive materials, construction materials, and other fields.

Especially in the photovoltaic field,POEWater resistance, aging resistance, and potential-induced degradation (PID) resistance of the film.PIDThe advantages are significant.

2024Year TransparentEVAMaterials still account for approximately41.6%The main market share.

But co-extrusion typeEPEFilmEVA-POE-EVAThe proportion of ) has increased to37%The application is expected to increase in the future.

In response to such market demand,2024The year our countryPOEThe apparent consumption reached4410,000 tons, but it is almost entirely dependent on imports.

EVAConsumption is13910,000 tons, with the import volume accounting for approximately31%。

The current globalPOEProduction capacity is mainly concentrated in Dow Chemical and ExxonMobil.SKThe majority of the production capacity is held by a few companies such as Mitsui Chemicals, with Dow accounting for a particularly high proportion.48%。

This highly import-dependent situation, with the domestic...LAODevice and accessoriesPOEThe commissioning of the equipment is gradually being changed.

The report shows that2024After the New Year, ethylene in our country-The import volume of α-olefin copolymers has significantly decreased compared to previous years, and the trend of domestic substitution is looking very promising.

Technological breakthrough is key.C4Industrial upgrading to high-carbon α-olefins

From the more mature α-C4（1-Butene), to high-carbon α-olefins that still need breakthroughs (1-Propylene,1-The development path of the α-olefin industry in China is very clear.

Currently domestic1-The technology for butene is already very mature, and the total production capacity has also reached.96 /Year, the main production process is mixing.C4Separation, butene isomerization, and ethylene dimerization method.

However, productionPOEHigh-carbon α-olefins are still reliant on imports in the long term.

The report analysis believes that our countryPOEThe main technical bottlenecks are threefold: insufficient supply of high-carbon α-olefins, especially...1-Octene; delayed development of metallocene catalysts; lack of practical experience in high-temperature solution polymerization processes.

Historical experience also tells us that no technology can ever confine the Chinese people forever.

2021In recent years, the situation began to change as PetroChina and Sinopec successively made breakthroughs in ethylene oligomerization technology. Subsequently, several leading petrochemical companies, relying on large-scale refining and chemical bases, have successively launched projects.LAODevice and downstreamPOEDevice.

2024Year Wanhua Chemical'sLAODevice commissioning is expected.2025Annual formation of actual production capacity.

2026Year, currently under constructionLAOThe project will be put into mass production, and China may possess super15810,000 tons ofLAOCapacity.

Cost competitiveness and the advantages of the entire industry chain are gradually emerging.

The main factors influencing the cost of alpha olefins include fixed asset depreciation, corporate value-added tax, raw material costs, and energy consumption costs.

Therefore, whether there is an advantage in refining and petrochemical integration, the cost of ethylene feedstock, whether the process design is reasonable, and whether production operations are optimal, all play a decisive role in costs.

Due to the abundant ethane resources, the production cost and energy consumption advantages of ethylene plants in the United States are very significant.SHOPThe advantages of the process route are obvious, with production costs approximately lower than the domestic average.300 /

However, the U.S. federal corporate tax is21%Additionally, each state imposes its own taxes.1%-12%The income tax and tax costs are much higher than domestically.

Simply fromPOEFrom a cost perspective, domesticPOEThe equipment is mostly based on large integrated refining and chemical bases, and is also equipped with the production of α-olefins.LAOThe device has advantages in the industrial chain, with significant advantages in upstream and downstream coordination and energy consumption control during operation.

Partially offset the cost advantages in North America. After comprehensive evaluation, the overall advantage in North America is approximately60 /Around tons.

If considering from North America to Asia about40 /The cost of maritime transport per ton, coupled with the high chemical reactivity of alpha olefins, makes them unsuitable for long-distance transport, thus diminishing the competitive advantage of imported products.

Opportunities for domestic companies and industrial chain opportunities after domestic substitution.

Most of the production facilities in our country are constructed in a relatively short time, and labor costs are much lower than in North America, among other factors.

Domestic ethylene, α-olefins,POEThe infrastructure cost advantage is evident, and the expansion of the entire industry chain base is relatively easier.

Based on the above information, China's future α-olefin production capacity still has good cost control capabilities and has the strength to compete with North American production capacity.

Satellite Chemical and Wanhua Chemical have the advantage of producing ethylene from imported ethane, while PetroChina and Sinopec have regional synergy advantages; Dingjide possesses intellectual property in process packages and catalysts.

2025The arrival of the peak in annual production capacity marks a critical turning point for China's alpha-olefin industry, transitioning from technological breakthroughs to large-scale production.

This breakthrough will not only change the current situation of heavy reliance on imports but also provide a solid material foundation for strategic emerging industries such as domestic photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and high-end equipment manufacturing, thus initiating a revolution in the localization of new materials.

However, industrial development also faces challenges such as geopolitical risks, production capacity falling short of expectations, and macroeconomic fluctuations.

How to continuously improve technical standards and optimize cost structures while expanding production capacity will be a topic that all manufacturing enterprises need to continuously consider.

With the rapid expansion of production capacity, will it also inevitably face the outcome of overcapacity in the future?