Facing the "uncertainty" of market competition and consumer demand, since March, many air conditioner channel dealers have changed their previous strategy of making payments to take advantage of policies, no longer easily making payments, and generally choosing to wait and see. What concerns are hidden behind this change in attitude among these dealers?

In the past month, an atmosphere of anxiety has pervaded the air conditioning industry. Many "helmsmen" of air conditioning companies have even admitted that they are often plagued by insomnia and find it difficult to sleep.

Since the start of construction in February 2025, the air conditioning industry has ushered in a tense and crucial "opening season." The core task for major air conditioning companies is to advance a new round of "collection and delivery" breakdown work to channel distributors. However, the market feedback is not optimistic.

Dealers generally stated that they would definitely attend the air conditioning companies' opening meetings, where they would eat, exchange ideas, and learn about policies and market analysis. However, they are particularly cautious when it comes to making payments, and would not easily make large payments, at most only 20-30% of what they did in previous years. They prefer to replenish stock when there is a shortage, rather than overcommitting their limited funds to the tasks of a few companies.

The home appliance industry believes that the emergence of such a market situation is quite normal. Dealers are not unwilling to make payments, but rather they dare not. Many merchants have revealed that they are concerned about suffering losses if the market becomes sluggish and prices fall after enjoying policy discounts by making advance payments. At the same time, many dealers are worried about the competitive situation and consumer purchasing power in this year's air conditioner market, fearing that making advance payments may lead to no profit or even losses. In addition, whether high temperatures can drive the sales boom of air conditioners is also full of uncertainties. Based on last year's market experience, merchants generally do not dare to have high expectations.

In fact, since the start of work after the Spring Festival in February this year, despite the support of the national subsidy policy for home appliances, the purchasing power and consumption capacity of the front-line consumer market have not risen but declined, presenting a scene of coldness and flatness. Many air conditioner companies and merchants lament that even if they try their utmost, the market shows no response, as if punching into the air, to no avail.

Regarding the future market trends and consumption situation, although most air conditioning companies verbally emphasize numerous opportunities and encourage dealers to be at ease, in action they continue to fiercely compete, launching sub-brands and cost-effective brands to grab orders. This indicates that, in reality, everyone is uncertain.

From the current market and consumption trends, as well as the intense competitive landscape, coupled with the unpredictable weather factors in the air conditioning industry, many air conditioning channel dealers are filled with worry and have expressed their desire to "take it one step at a time," absolutely not daring to be greedy.

Specifically, the concerns of the dealers mainly focus on three aspects: first, they are afraid that after enjoying policy benefits by making payments in March, the factory will lower prices in April due to market pressure, leading to significant losses for them; second, they worry that online e-commerce and new retail platforms have more advantages in terms of products, prices, and promotions, and after making advance payments and taking on sales tasks, it may be difficult to push terminal retail, resulting in inventory becoming a heavy burden; third, many mainstream air conditioner companies have achieved full retailization, with headquarters capable of directly shipping nationwide "even drop-shipping," meaning dealers do not need to stock up heavily. Therefore, they are unwilling to take risks to enjoy the policies and prefer to advance sales tasks month by month.

Currently, many leading air conditioner companies no longer solely rely on making dealers pay in advance for stock to maintain operations, but they still put pressure on partner merchants through monthly retail targets, urging them to sell in the terminal market. For air conditioner companies, the collection at the beginning of March and the retail sales in April are crucial. Although dealers do not need to stockpile a large amount of goods, they still need to make payments to secure their target quotas.

Appliance industry analysis suggests that if consumer demand in the primary market cannot be effectively improved in the short term, the air conditioning industry will face a more brutal and intense price war from late March to April. Even if the consumer market shows signs of recovery, leading air conditioning companies, in order to secure orders, will not easily reduce price competition.

More critically, numerous air conditioner channel dealers have revealed to the home appliance industry that, given the current market competition and consumer demand, a prolonged price war is expected regardless of the market situation, leading to an industry reshuffle. This reshuffle is not based on the operating costs of air conditioner companies but aims at eliminating and squeezing out competitors. When necessary, large air conditioner enterprises may even adopt a strategic loss approach for certain products in order to clear the market and eliminate rivals.

In such a market environment, many air conditioner channel dealers can only adopt a "wait and see while moving forward" strategy, not daring to place their bets easily in advance, for fear of falling into a passive situation!