[ABS Weekly Review] Insufficient Trading Activity, Market Runs Weak

1. Market Review This Week: ABS market prices showed a weak consolidation during the week, with light trading activity.

This week, the ABS market prices have been weak and consolidated. As of now, the mainstream price for domestic materials is between 9,100-10,400 yuan/ton. The low-end price has decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to last Thursday, while the high-end price remains unchanged from last Thursday, and transactions are relatively sluggish.

2. Analysis of driving factors: Raw materials fluctuate within a narrow range, industry consumption is insufficient, and price weakness is difficult to change.

This week, the ABS market is weak and consolidating, with the price focus in some markets shifting downward. Earlier this week, the delay in US-China tariffs released positive macro signals, creating a favorable atmosphere for commodities. However, due to persistently weak demand, participants in the ABS market remain cautious. The main raw material, styrene, experienced range-bound fluctuations, acrylonitrile saw a narrow increase, and butadiene rose first and then fell, resulting in mixed movements in raw material prices. There is no positive support from the cost side. During the week, industry operation rates slightly declined, but overall supply remains ample, with some sellers still facing inventory pressure. End-user factory orders did not meet expectations, focusing mainly on digesting previous inventories, and speculative demand remains sluggish. Concerns persist over the difficult-to-change situation of strong supply and weak demand. Holders are adjusting to market conditions, with some room for slight negotiation on actual orders, but buyers lack initiative in inquiries, leading to decreased market transaction activity.

3. Market Outlook for Next Week: Costs may trend weaker, fundamentals show limited changes, and ABS prices are likely to consolidate with slight weakness.

The ABS market price is expected to be weak and fluctuate within a narrow range next week. It is estimated that the mainstream price of domestic materials will range from 9,050 to 10,400 yuan/ton, with the lower end down by 50 yuan/ton compared to this Thursday, and the higher end basically unchanged from this Thursday; the average price is expected to be around 9,720 yuan/ton. Next week, a few production lines in regions such as Shandong will increase output, so production may rise slightly. After August 20, due to factors such as transportation, industry operating rates are expected to decline slightly, but overall supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level for the year, and there is no obvious trend of a significant reduction in available supply. In the second half of August, downstream operating rates may see a slight increase. With tariff extensions, some new export orders are under negotiation, but since some demand has already been brought forward, the actual incremental volume may be limited. The upstream market is likely to operate weakly, and there is limited change in the short-term supply-demand structure. Therefore, the ABS market is expected to remain weak in the short term.