US to Impose Tariffs on Imported Drones and Components! International Oil Prices Fall, Plastic Futures Edge Higher

I. Crude Oil Market Dynamics

8/13: Although the US-Iran negotiations continue to be deadlocked, market concerns have not further intensified, and international oil prices have fallen. NYMEX crude oil futures September contract closed at $81.25, down $2.02 per barrel, a decrease of 2.43% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures October contract closed at $87.07, down $1.91 per barrel, a decrease of 2.15%. China's INE crude oil futures October contract rose 2.5 yuan to 550.6 yuan per barrel, and the night session rose 2.4 yuan to 553 yuan per barrel.

Market Outlook

On Thursday, oil prices fell. Although geopolitical tensions caused significant intraday fluctuations, demand adjustments dominated the price movements. This further reinforces the fundamental judgment that oil prices are currently operating within a range. It is worth mentioning that while international oil prices are experiencing a high-level correction, domestic SC has shown strong resilience. Additionally, the European diesel crack spread remains strong, continuously reaching historical highs, with tight supply leading to increasing anxiety on the consumption side.

The two sides, the United States and Iran, have each insisted on their own version of who controls the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. previously claimed it had complete control over the shipping lane, while a spokesperson for Iran’s Joint Military Command rebutted Trump’s claim of controlling the strait as a “lie,” saying it exposed the U.S. military’s helplessness. The spokesperson further asserted that no vessel may pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely without Iran’s approval, that Iran has full control over the strait, and that transit must obtain permission from the Iranian side. Although the United States has recently taken a cold approach to negotiations with Iran, Iran clearly does not want the situation to cool down. ADNOC in Abu Dhabi, UAE, said two vessels were attacked on Thursday while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Yemen’s Houthi movement claimed it had launched a drone attack on a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jizan, Saudi Arabia. An adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader threatened to escalate the conflict if its demands were not met, while U.S. Vice President Vance said the United States has many tools available in its policy toward Iran, with the primary goal being to keep American oil and gasoline affordable. Once the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz ends, oil prices will return to stability. But the reality is that the situation in the Middle East remains unstable, and the key lies in the U.S. response following Iran’s proactive pressure. The market has summed up an experience in timing oil prices over the past period: good long opportunities often come after positive U.S.-Iran progress sends oil prices sharply lower, while good short opportunities often come when the United States issues threats and pushes oil prices higher, because Trump ultimately still tends to “TACO,” and turning points in the market often occur around weekends.

In a scenario of a blockade of the Strait, the baseline is that overall oil market supply is tight. Judging from the progress of the U.S.–Iran confrontation, the likelihood of the Strait reopening in the near term is low, which means oil prices lack a basis for a sharp decline. Even if prices enter a corrective phase, the downside will be relatively limited until the geopolitical situation clearly cools. In this high-volatility period, pay attention to risk control and participate cautiously.

II. Macroeconomic Market Dynamics

1、The Japanese government is reportedly in favor of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates sooner.

2、Trump imposes a 100% tariff on imports of certain drones and components.

3、It is reported that Ukraine has proposed a ceasefire on civilian targets in the Black Sea to Russia.

Indonesia Nickel Miners Association: Selectively granting additional production quotas for nickel ore in 2026.

5、The interest-rate futures market has reduced its pricing for Fed rate hikes this year to 23 basis points and is no longer pricing in a full rate hike.

6、美联储—哈玛克：重申现在必须加息，不确信通胀会继续改善；巴尔金：可能需要加息来实现美联储的目标；古尔斯比：许多通胀驱动因素来自关税，然后是石油价格，希望是一次性上涨。

7. Middle East situation—

Iran: Without approval, no vessel can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

② The U.S. military has established its first multinational drone task force to strengthen unmanned operational capabilities in the Middle East.

③The United States is set to dispatch the USS Washington to the Middle East to replace the USS Lincoln.

3. Plastics Market Dynamics

On Thursday, oil prices closed lower, while the main contracts of plastic-related futures edged up slightly in the night session.

The plastic 2609 contract is reported at 7842 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15% compared to the previous trading day.

The PP2609 contract was reported at 8,392 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous trading day.

The PVC2609 contract was quoted at 4,502 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Styrene contract 2610 is quoted at 8,230 yuan per ton, up 0.09% from the previous trading day.

IV. Today's Market Forecast

PP: The short-term market is expected to show a strong oscillating trend. Geopolitical issues repeatedly provide a reason for cost-driven strong support, while low industry inventory combined with optimistic demand expectations highlights a strong market guidance. However, mainstream transactions and the export window have not yet stabilized, becoming a restraining factor for the market.

PE：综合来看，供需类数据整体较前期有所增强，预计短期聚乙烯价格震荡上涨。

PVC: Overall, in the short term, the domestic PVC market remains in a weak supply-demand pattern. Routine maintenance is expected to decrease downstream, while supply remains at a high level. However, domestic market demand is still weak, and foreign trade exports have improved slightly. At present, cost support is relatively solid. In the short term, attention should still be paid to changes in downstream operating rates and the export market. The PVC market is expected to continue fluctuating within a range in the near term.