U.s. announces new tariff measures! trump plans to restart large-scale war on iran, international oil prices surge, plastic market faces upward pressure

I. Crude Oil Market Dynamics

On 7/23, the possibility of further escalation in the Iran-U.S. conflict, coupled with Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers, heightened supply risks and drove international oil prices sharply higher. The NYMEX crude oil September contract rose by $5.36/bbl to $92.19, up 6.17% MoM; the ICE Brent crude oil September contract rose by $6.62/bbl to $100.69, up 7.04% MoM. China’s INE crude oil futures September 2026 contract rose by 13.7 yuan to 563.9 yuan/bbl, and gained another 40.1 yuan in night trading to 604 yuan/bbl.

Market Outlook

On Thursday, the oil market was completely ignited. For the first time in two months, Brent crude rose back above the $100 mark, with prices accelerating higher and time spreads surging in tandem, leaving market sentiment in a highly euphoric state. The main reason for this week’s accelerated rally was that, after U.S.-Iran negotiations made no progress on Monday, geopolitical risks continued to escalate, further reinforcing the market’s consensus on tighter supply and creating an overwhelmingly bullish driver.

The Houthis in Yemen have begun attacking oil tankers in the Red Sea, while in the Strait of Hormuz an oil tanker struck a mine, exploded, and caught fire, prompting several tankers to turn back. The Revolutionary Guard announced that the strait was under its control and had been “completely blocked.” More importantly, geopolitical risks show no sign of easing, and the hardline standoff between the United States and Iran remains intact. In particular, Trump has so far publicly spoken out to calm oil prices: in a public speech on Wednesday, he reassured the American public that the situation with Iran was only a small-scale conflict, while continuing to threaten Iran externally. On Thursday, he warned that if the Houthis in Yemen continued attacking Saudi ships, Iran would be held responsible. Although some tankers are still risking passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of disruption to Middle Eastern crude supplies has continued to surge this week, and the market is already showing clear signs of panic, with near-term oil prices continuing to rise sharply. As oil prices climb to $100, Trump may soon have to step in again to cool down the oil market.

In just two weeks, oil prices have rebounded rapidly by more than $30, fully recovering the losses seen after the U.S. and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding. The panic reflected in the market comes against the backdrop of a significant squeeze in the supply buffer currently facing the crude oil market after inventory drawdowns in the first half of the year. This round of restrictions on Middle East oil exports is more severe, causing oil prices to quickly shift again from concerns over oversupply at the end of June to fears of supply disruptions. As U.S.-Iran military frictions continue, these concerns are adding an increasingly higher geopolitical risk premium to crude oil. Many investors who had begun trading on the oversupply narrative in late June have found it difficult to adjust their thinking in such a short period, but the pressure to exit positions as oil prices surge will further drive prices higher. Until market tensions ease, oil prices are likely to remain strong. As prices rapidly return to the $100 mark, high volatility has also returned. While oil prices may continue to rise, risk control should be strengthened at elevated levels, and participation should be cautious.

II. Macroeconomic Market Dynamics

Trump:“Seriously considering” resuming large-scale military operations against Iran, and is close to making a decision.Iran wants to negotiate, but Iran is not ready yet; they have not suffered enough.If the Houthis attack ships again, the United States will hold Iran responsible.。

2. Trump:Any and all damages caused to ships, cargo, or anything related thereto shall be compensated from Iranian funds currently held and controlled by the United States.

3. The U.S. House of Representatives again passed a resolution calling on Trump to end the military conflict with Iran, while the Senate blocked another similar resolution.

4. The United States deployed B-1 bombers, escalating attacks on Iran.

5. During his visit to Iran, the Iraqi Prime Minister stated that Iraq does not allow actions launched from its territory that threaten Iran.

Iran warns the UK not to allow US forces to use bases to attack Iran.

7. U.S. pressures Saudi Arabia to sign the “Abraham Accords,” or the nuclear agreement will be “void.”

8、The United States has announced new tariff measures, imposing tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 economies, to replace the global import tariffs that are about to expire.。

III. Plastics Market Dynamics

International oil prices surged, and the main futures contracts related to plastics rose in night trading.

The plastic 2609 contract is quoted at 8015 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.6% compared to the previous trading day.

The PP2609 contract was quoted at 8,469 yuan/ton, up 0.93% from the previous trading day.

PVC2609 contract was quoted at 4,614 yuan/ton, up 0.5% from the previous trading day.

The styrene 2609 contract reported 8,861 tons, an increase of 2.88% compared to the previous trading day.

Section Four: Today's Market Forecast

PP：The market is expected to fluctuate on a relatively strong note next week. The recurring geopolitical conflicts are providing diminishing support to the market, while high raw material prices are squeezing industry margins and curbing cargo circulation. On the supply side, reduced maintenance-related losses, combined with pressure from new capacity expansions, are weighing on the market, as supply-demand fundamentals and costs clash intensely.

PE：Overall, supply and demand data have strengthened compared with the previous period, and polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the next period.

PVC：Overall, the domestic PVC spot market continues to be affected by geopolitical conflicts. The rise in crude oil has increased bullish sentiment in the cost side of bulk petrochemical products. From a cost fluctuation perspective, ethylene-based PVC is supported relatively strongly. However, there has been no change in PVC supply-demand fundamentals. Supply is expected to increase moderately, industry inventories remain at a high level, and the PVC market is likely to continue operating strongly in the short term. Caution is advised regarding risks at elevated levels.