Supply and demand imbalances widen coupled with weakened cost support, pbat market prices decline amid fluctuations

Introduction: As of late May 2026, the domestic PBAT market has been dragged down by supply-demand conflicts, maintaining a narrow range of weak fluctuations overall. Currently, the mainstream transaction price range nationwide is between 11,300 and 12,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 11,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to last week.

1.     Weak demand support keeps PBAT market prices fluctuating weakly.

Currently, the price of PBAT in East China is running in the range of 11,300 to 12,300 yuan/ton, with an average weekly price of 11,857 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.19% compared to the previous period, showing a narrow and weak downward trend overall. On the supply side, the industry's overall operating rate is relatively low, but leading enterprises are operating at high capacity, resulting in ample supply and putting pressure on sales, leading to slight price adjustments. On the demand side, the seasonal end of biodegradable film has affected the follow-up of orders for biodegradable film bags, with cautious procurement and insufficient support from basic demand. On the cost side, the decline in raw material prices has weakened support, while long-term cost pressures have limited the room for further declines.

Raw material prices are consolidating downward, reducing support for PBAT market prices.

As can be seen from Figure 2, PBAT costs have continued to fluctuate downward since April, providing weaker overall support for PBAT market prices. Currently, the weekly average price of BDO bulk water in East China, a major raw material for PBAT, is RMB 8,364/tonne, down 0.89% week on week. For adipic acid, another key raw material, mainstream negotiations in East China are at RMB 8,800–9,200/tonne on an acceptance-delivered basis, with a weekly average price of RMB 8,964/tonne, up 0.72% week on week. The weekly average spot market price of PTA in East China, also a major raw material, is RMB 6,526/tonne, down 0.44% week on week. Driven by the overall decline in core raw material prices, the theoretical production cost of PBAT fell by 0.22% week on week. The weakening of feedstock prices further intensified the wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers, making companies more cautious in procurement and generally inclined to hold cash and negotiate prices, thereby forcing PBAT producers to offer discounts to promote transactions.

3. PBAT export volumes from China remained at a high level in March and April, with a slight decline in export performance in May.

Customs data shows that in April 2026, the domestic PBAT export volume was 16,992.802 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.05%, but a year-on-year increase of 49.45%. The average export price for the month was reported at $1,431 per ton, an increase of 9.49% compared to the previous month. In terms of destinations, exports to Italy were the largest, reaching 5,466.6 tons, with an average export price of $1,413 per ton.

Earlier in March and April, overseas buyers brought forward stockpiling due to geopolitical factors, while the formal implementation of plastic bans and restrictions in the EU and Southeast Asia led to a concentrated release of demand for biodegradable materials. However, from late April to May, export momentum gradually weakened, order volumes narrowed, market bargaining room expanded, and both export volume and prices contracted to some extent.

4. Weaker market support means PBAT prices may still decline.

Expected next period PBAT The market digests the decline, and prices are at 11300-12300 Yuan / Consolidating within the per-ton range, with the average price 11800 Yuan / tons. On the supply side, PBAT Production has increased; leading large-scale enterprises are operating at high utilization, market supply is loose, and the supply side is under pressure. On the demand side, demand for degradable film bags is muted, demand for degradable mulch film is winding down, and manufacturers are mainly focused on clearing raw material inventories and making necessary purchases of low-priced feedstock, coupled with PBAT The export situation is narrowing, and demand provides weak support for the market. On the cost side, it is expected that in the next period... BDO adipic acid PTA Prices may soften, and overall costs may decline slightly; however, cost pressure still remains, providing bottom support to the market. Recently, 3 Looking at the week, PBAT The supply-demand imbalance is difficult to resolve, and market support is weak. PBAT There is still a possibility of price reduction, and the price range may be between 11,200 and 12,200 yuan per ton.