Raking In $153 Billion! Saudi Aramco Sounds Red Alert, What Is the Most Profitable Oil Company Afraid Of?

Zhuansu Vision has learned that Saudi AramcoMarch 10thOfficially released2025 Annual and Fourth Quarter Operating Performance，handed in a seeminglyA “hardcore” financial report, yet simultaneously issuing a warning during the earnings call about “the greatest crisis the region’s oil industry has ever faced.”

On one hand, there is the impressive performance of over $100 billion in revenue and the company’s first-ever stock buyback; on the other, there is global supply-chain panic triggered by the near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The situation facing this world’s largest oil exporter mirrors the current global energy market: beneath a façade of financial stability lies geopolitical tension."The black swan" is pushing the world to the edge of unknown risks.

Financial Performance: Demonstrating Resilience Amid Oil Price Volatility

In 2025, crude oil prices fell from $80.2 per barrel in 2024 to $69.2 per barrel, but Saudi Aramco still achieved strong financial performance through strict capital allocation and low-cost operations.

Core Profit Data：Adjusted net income for the fiscal year 2025 reached $104.7 billion, a 5.1% decrease from the previous year; the fourth-quarter adjusted profit was $25.1 billion, slightly higher than analysts' expectations of $24.8 billion. The full-year net profit was $93.4 billion, lower than the $95.6 billion previously forecast by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). The fourth-quarter net profit dropped 20.5% year-on-year to nearly $17.8 billion, marking the 12th consecutive quarter of year-on-year decline, mainly due to weaker prices for crude oil, refined products, and chemicals.

Cash Flow and Capital AllocationAnnual operating cash flow136.2 billion U.S. dollars of free cash flow, 85.4 billion U.S. dollars of free cash flow, providing solid support for the company's stable operations; 2025 capital investment total of 52.2 billion U.S. dollars, in line with expectations, down 1 billion U.S. dollars from the previous year; 2026 capital investment guidance target is 50 to 55 billion U.S. dollars, continuing the cautious allocation strategy. The company's debt ratio continues to be optimized, dropping to 3.8% by the end of 2025, lower than 4.5% at the end of 2024.

Shareholder Return Performance：The total shareholder dividends for the entire year of 2025 reached 85.5 billion USD, lower than 124 billion USD in 2024, but still remained at an industry-high level. The basic dividend for the fourth quarter was 21.89 billion USD, an increase of 3.5% year-over-year, marking four consecutive years of growth, and will be paid in the first quarter of 2026. At the same time, the company announced its first-ever stock repurchase program, with a scale of 3 billion USD over an 18-month period. Previously, the company had long relied on substantial dividends to return value to shareholders.

Business Layout Progress：The Jafurah oilfield has started production, and the Tanajib gas plant has become operational, continuing to advance the goal of increasing natural gas sales volume by about 80% by 2030 compared to 2021; the Marjan oil production expansion project has been commissioned, and the Berri oil production expansion project has started water injection operations, enhancing flexibility in response to market changes. By 2025, technology value will reach 5.3 billion USD from artificial intelligence, digitalization, and other solutions, with a cumulative technology value of 11.3 billion USD since 2023. The Iktva project has achieved a local procurement rate of 70%, with a 2030 target of 75%.

Geopolitical Crisis: The Strait of HormuzThroat Discomfort

Strong financial results cannot mask CEO Amin Nasser's...Amin H.Nasser's deep concerns. He clearly stated on the March 10 earnings call that the current US-Israel war against Iran has led to the global energy lifeline -The Strait of Hormuz is nearly closed.。

Strait Blockade and Supply RisksThe Strait of Hormuz carries approximately global20% of oil trade transportation, a must-pass route for Middle Eastern crude oil exports, and also a "chokepoint" for one-fifth of global crude oil trade. Recently, the war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran has led to the near-complete closure of the strait. Shipping data shows that the number of oil tankers passing through the strait has significantly decreased, with navigation almost at a standstill, forcing multiple oil-producing countries in the region to cut production.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard CorpsOn March 10, it was clearly stated that if the US and Israel continue their attacks, "not a single liter of oil" will be allowed to be exported from the Middle East; previously, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson also told CNBC that oil tankers passing through the strait "must be very careful."

Direct impact on Saudi Aramco：On March 2, Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery was hit by a drone attack, causing a fire that was quickly brought under control and is expected to resume operations soon, but has already triggered global supply concerns.

A social media screenshot from March 2 shows thick smoke rising from Saudi Aramco’s Tanura Refinery in Saudi Arabia.Image source:Xinhua News Agency/Reuters

As the economy of Saudi Arabia"Money Tree", Saudi Aramco supports more than half of the country's government revenue, with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia directly owning 81.5% of the company, and the Public Investment Fund owning an additional 16%. Its operational stability is directly related to the Saudi national finances.

Oil Price Volatility and Global RisksGeopolitical crises directly cause sharp fluctuations in international oil prices, and Brent crude oil pricesOn March 9, it surged to nearly $120 per barrel, then fell back to around $91.4 per barrel on March 10.

Nasser warned that global oil inventories are currently at their lowest level in five years, and the rate of decline is accelerating. If the situation continues to deteriorate, the ripple effects triggered by the conflict will spread from the shipping industry to aviation, agriculture, automotive, petrochemicals, and other sectors, causing catastrophic consequences for the global oil market and the world economy—making this the most severe challenge the region's oil and gas industry has faced to date."Maximum Crisis"

Emergency Response Measures: To address potential supply crises, Saudi Aramco has developed multiple contingency plans, with its maximum sustainable daily capacity reaching12 million barrels are currently being supplied by maximizing the use of the East-West Pipeline, which has a daily capacity of nearly 7 million barrels and runs to Saudi Arabia's west coast port of Yanbu. This pipeline is Saudi Aramco's only alternative export route following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Nasser stated that the pipeline will gradually return to full capacity over the coming days.

Global Impact and Future Outlook: A Single Move Sets Everything in Motion

Saudi Aramco's warning is not exaggerated. Global oil inventories are at their lowest level in five years and are declining even faster amid this crisis.

The majority of the world's remaining oil capacity is concentrated in the Middle East, and whether the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal directly affects global energy supply security and the stability of the world economy.

For governments around the world, every shift in the Middle East situation could directly impact oil prices and the pace of economic development. Should the situation spiral out of control, global supply chains, inflation levels, and national economic policies might all be forced into difficult adjustments.

：

Saudi AramcoThe impressive performance in 2025 highlights the operational resilience of global oil industry leaders; however, energy supply uncertainties arising from geopolitical crises have become a “Sword of Damocles” hanging over the global energy market and downstream industries.

For the plasticizing industry, the triple pressures of soaring oil prices, raw material shortages, and rising logistics costs are unlikely to ease in the short term, and the industry will continue to face challenges."High costs, strong volatility" challenges。

18 months, whether it is the 3 billion dollar stock buyback plan or the shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, will become a key window to observe the global energy market and geopolitical risks.