Recycled pet supply and demand cost analysis: Market Remains Weakly Stable Amid Intensified Upstream and Downstream Supply-Demand Game

During this cycle, the recycled PET bottle flake market saw a clear tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors. In summer, the recovery volume of post-consumer beverage bottle scrap remained stable, while rigid demand from downstream recycled chemical fiber production provided bottom support. However, fluctuating declines in virgin polyester feedstock prices compressed the reasonable price spread between virgin and recycled materials, and processing margins for recycled bottle flakes remained under pressure, leaving the overall market running weakly but steadily.

Raw material prices: In the East China market, the weekly average price of transparent white clean bottle bales was RMB 4,600/ton, down RMB 50/ton from the previous week; blue-and-white clean bottle bales were RMB 4,300/ton, and mixed-color bottle bales were RMB 3,750/ton. The mainstream price for blue-and-white cold-washed bottle flakes was RMB 4,230/ton, while spinning-grade 3A white flakes were RMB 6,950/ton, with a fixed price spread of RMB 2,700/ton between low-end and high-end products. Peak summer beverage consumption has kept post-consumer bottle supply stable. Recyclers remain strongly cautious and are generally purchasing at suppressed prices, causing the overall raw material market to edge slightly lower.

Route costs and processing margins: The all-in processing cost per ton for a standard cold-washed bottle flake production line is RMB 565–625/ton (including crushing, hot washing, sorting, drying, and environmental loss). During this period, both feedstock and finished product prices moved downward in tandem, and the industry’s average processing fee was RMB 530–590/ton, down RMB 92/ton from the full-month average in June. Ordinary civil-grade cold-wash production lines are operating at only marginal profitability, while food-contact-grade 3A white flakes, supported by product premiums, have maintained stable profit levels.

Operations, maintenance, and supply: The average operating rate of domestic recycled PET cold-washing processors stood at 72.5%, unchanged from the previous period. There were no industry-wide maintenance shutdowns during the week, while two small local bottle-washing plants slightly reduced output to manage finished goods inventories. Spot prices for virgin PTA and MEG fluctuated downward, and ample supply of virgin bottle-grade chips continued to weigh on recycled PET prices. At Humen Port in South China, weekly arrivals of recycled PET mixed scrap totaled 0.55 kt, all of which consisted of low-end industrial mixed flakes, with no significant impact on high-grade bottle flakes for spinning applications.

Inventory, downstream demand, and spread transmission: The average available days of finished goods inventory in the industry stood at 10.6 days, down 0.13 days month on month, indicating a gradual destocking trend. Downstream recycled polyester staple fiber and filament enterprises maintained normalized rigid-demand procurement, while food packaging orders remained stable, with no concentrated large-scale restocking. In East China, the spot price of virgin PET bottle flakes was RMB 6,690/ton, and the price spread between conventional blue-and-white recycled bottle flakes and virgin material narrowed by RMB 85/ton month on month to RMB 2,460/ton, weakening the cost competitiveness of recycled materials. Declining prices of upstream polyester feedstocks were transmitted downward through the value chain, dragging recycled finished products lower as well, while industry profits continued to be squeezed.

Market outlook: With ample supply of waste bottle feedstock and rigid demand from downstream chemical fiber providing support, spot recycled PET prices are unlikely to decline sharply; however, without a concentrated restocking move downstream, processing margins are unlikely to recover.

(This article's data is compiled from publicly available information for market reference only and does not constitute any investment or trading advice.)