POM Supply and Demand Analysis: Facility Restart Boosts Supply While Off-Season Demand Weighs on Market, Causing Decline

1. Hot Topics Summary

1. This week, POM output was 13.83 thousand tons, up 1.44 thousand tons from last week, an increase of 11.62%; capacity utilization rate was 88.60%, up 9.23% from the previous period.

In June, the mainstream price of POM in the East China market was 11,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,400 yuan/ton compared to the same period last month; on June 30, the domestic POM tax-inclusive price range in the Yuyao market was 7,900-11,400 yuan/ton.

Yankuang LuHua and Hengli Petrochemical POM units have successively started up, while Xinjiang Guoye POM unit is undergoing maintenance.

2. Supply side: Previously overhauled units have restarted intensively, leading to a significant rebound in output.

In June, the POM supply side showed a pattern of being tight at first and then easing. At the beginning of the month, Yankuang Luhua’s Phase I and Phase II POM units, with a combined capacity of 80,000 tonnes, were shut down for maintenance; Xinjiang Guoye’s 40,000-tonne POM unit was also shut down for maintenance; and one line of Hengli Petrochemical’s 80,000-tonne/year POM unit underwent maintenance. Supply once contracted, but under the pressure of weak demand, the supply reduction failed to effectively boost prices.

As we enter mid to late October, the previously shut-down facilities are gradually restarting. Yanzhou Coal and Electricity's POM facility has resumed production, and Hengli Petrochemical's 80,000 tons/year POM facility is back to normal operations. The Tianjin Bohua 40,000 tons/year POM facility has been shut down for maintenance since July 7, 2025, and remains offline. The Xinjiang Guoye POM facility with a capacity of 40,000 tons is also under maintenance shutdown.

From the weekly data, the rebound in output has been quite evident. In the week of June 5–11, POM output was 12.84 thousand tons, down 0.13 thousand tons from the previous week, a decrease of 1.56%, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.25%. By this week (late June), POM output had risen to 13.83 thousand tons, up 1.44 thousand tons from the previous week, an increase of 11.62%, while the capacity utilization rate reached 88.60%, a sharp rise of 9.23 percentage points from the previous period. Industry-wide capacity utilization has recovered to a high level close to 90%.

From a more macro perspective, the POM capacity utilization rate in June was 82.22%, a decrease of 3.33% compared to the same period last month. Although the monthly utilization rate has slightly declined, the concentrated restart of facilities at the end of the month has led to a rapid return of supply to high levels. The supply side's support for the market is continuously weakening; although the inventory pressure for some petrochemical plants has eased, the restart of previously shut down facilities has created a pessimistic market sentiment.

Trend Chart of Domestic POM Capacity Utilization Rate from 2025 to 2026

3. Demand side: Off-season consumption, coupled with bearish sentiment, has kept downstream procurement consistently sluggish.

In June, downstream demand for POM generally showed the characteristics of an even weaker off-season.

On the terminal consumption side.The POM market is in the off-season of high temperatures, and terminal orders are expected to remain weak. The impact of the traditional downstream consumption off-season is continuing to deepen, with terminal operating rates declining and rigid demand purchases continuing to shrink. Buyers show little purchasing interest, and overall demand remains weak.

In terms of procurement pace.At the beginning of the month, trading sentiment in various regions was weak, and more high-quote, low-deal transactions emerged in the market. In mid-month, corporate inventories continued to build up, and the willingness to sell increased. Traders and downstream end-users remained cautious in their buying sentiment, leading to slow market movement across regions. In late month, POM prices fell to around the cost line, and traders’ willingness to replenish at low levels increased. Inquiries in the market became relatively more active, and downstream and end-user demand for essential restocking also rose, improving trading activity somewhat. However, overall transactions were still centered on just-in-time small orders, and no large-scale inventory replenishment occurred.

Market sentimentFundamental support is insufficient, and market participants continue to hold a bearish outlook. During the off-season, downstream operating rates have declined, overall purchasing sentiment remains weak, market trading is moderate, and participants’ enthusiasm for operations has weakened. Most are taking a wait-and-see approach to offers, with actual transactions subject to negotiation.

4. Price Performance: Ex-factory prices generally declined, and the market remained under downward pressure.

In June, the overall POM market showed a one-way downward trend. At the beginning of the month, under the pressure of weak demand, trading sentiment in various regions remained sluggish, and fundamental support was insufficient. In the middle of the month, corporate inventories continued to build up, and some manufacturers tentatively lowered ex-factory prices; market offers followed suit and moved lower, spreading a bearish sentiment across the market. Toward the end of the month, ex-factory prices were generally cut, and POM prices fell to around the cost line.

From the price data, the mainstream quotation for POM in the East China market in June is 11,100 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan/ton compared to the same period last month. On June 30, the mainstream price of Yuntianhua M90 in the Yuyao market is between 11,000 and 11,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 11,100 yuan/ton; the domestic POM tax-inclusive quotation range in the Yuyao area is 7,900 to 11,400 yuan/ton. The cash transaction price in the Dongguan area remains at 7,400 to 10,700 yuan/ton. The monthly average price of POM in South China is 9,800 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton compared to last month.

5. Supply and Demand Outlook

From the supply side, it appears that.Although CNOOC Inner Mongolia and Tangshan Zhonghao’s POM units have maintenance plans in July, the units that underwent maintenance earlier have already resumed supply, so support from the supply side remains insufficient. Industry capacity utilization has rebounded to a high level of 88.60%, and the market is well supplied.

From the demand sideIn July, the POM market is still in the off-season under high temperatures, and end-user orders are expected to remain weak. Buyers have little interest in purchasing. Downstream factories are only maintaining essential replenishment, with a low willingness to make large-scale purchases.

From a cost perspectiveAs the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for navigation is realized, the geopolitical risk premium that had been built up earlier is likely to dissipate, and methanol feedstock prices may continue to decline. The cost-side support for POM will further weaken.

OverallWith multiple bearish fundamental factors overlapping, the POM market is expected to continue its weak downward trend in July.