POM Costs And Profits: Methanol Continues To Weaken, Industry Profits Turn From Profit To Loss

1. Trending Topics Summary

On June 29, the methanol spot price index was 2436.87, down 37.42 from the previous day; the Taicang spot price was 2790 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day.

In June, the mainstream price of POM in the East China market was 11,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,400 yuan/ton compared to the same period last month, representing a drop of 11.20%.

3. This week, the average apparent profit of domestic POM was -31 RMB/ton, down 639 RMB/ton from last week, and the industry has fallen into losses.

2. Cost Structure Analysis

POM (polyoxymethylene) is produced using methanol as the main raw material, and fluctuations in methanol prices directly determine the cost center of POM. Recently, methanol and POM prices have shown a synchronized downward trend of “falling costs, falling product prices.”

Methanol sectorIn June, the methanol market overall showed a trend of fluctuating downward. On June 30, the methanol spot price index was 2436.87, down 37.42 from the previous trading day. The spot reference price for methanol in Taicang was 2760-2830 yuan/ton, with low prices hard to find in the market. In the morning, spot negotiations in Taicang were at 2760-2780 yuan/ton, with a basis of +310 to +330 yuan/ton. In the inland market, prices in Shanxi and some areas in the northwest continued to decline, with some replenishment orders being placed at lower prices, resulting in generally moderate trading activity. On June 11, the price of methanol in the Chongqing area was 3100 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton from the previous week; by the end of June, the methanol price reported by gas-based enterprises in Sichuan and Chongqing was 2780-2830 yuan/ton at the factory level.

From the cost formula perspective, POM production costs are highly correlated with methanol prices. As the price of methanol declines, the cost support for POM continues to weaken. According to Longzhong Information monitoring, the ex-factory prices of some manufacturers have dropped to around the cost line.

3. Profit Change Trend

Under the dual impact of weakening methanol prices and an accelerated decline in POM prices, the POM industry’s profits have plummeted sharply and have turned from profit to loss.

From a weekly data perspective, the trend of profit contraction is extremely significant. In the week of June 4, the average apparent profit of domestic POM was 835 yuan/ton. In the week of June 11, the apparent profit dropped to 745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a profit range of 688 to 804 yuan/ton. In the week of June 18, the apparent profit further declined to 804 yuan/ton. By the end of June (this week), the average apparent profit of domestic POM had fallen to -31 yuan/ton, plummeting 639 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, with a profit range of -213 to 233 yuan/ton. In just one month, industry profits shifted from a profit of over 800 yuan/ton to a loss of 31 yuan/ton, marking a significant decline.

The core reason for the sharp decline in profits is that the drop in POM prices was far greater than the decline in methanol, the raw material. In June, the mainstream quotation in the East China POM market was RMB 11,100/mt, down RMB 1,400/mt from the same period last month, a decrease of 11.20%. Meanwhile, POM ex-factory prices were generally lowered, with some producers’ ex-factory prices falling to around the cost line. Although traders and downstream end users have shown greater willingness to replenish stocks at low prices, the industry’s overall profit margins have been significantly compressed.

2025–2026 Domestic POM Profit and Price Comparison Chart (RMB/ton)

4. Cost Outlook

In the short term, as expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz materialize, the geopolitical risk premium that had supported prices earlier is likely to fade, and methanol prices may continue to decline. Domestic methanol supply is expected to remain at a high level, while imports may gradually recover. Coastal methanol inventories have continued to fall to 478,000 metric tons, nearly 35% lower than the same period last year, as the market awaits the realization of incremental import supply. Overall, methanol’s cost support for POM remains insufficient in the near term, and the industry’s loss-making situation is unlikely to improve fundamentally in the short term.