LLDPE Production Plans Hit Three-Year Low, Why Are Prices Still Struggling to Improve?

2026 5 15Day, domesticLLDPEProduction scheduling ratio decreased to25.74%, lower than the same period last year12.37percentage points, compared to2025Low annual average11.88percentage points, hitting the lowest level in nearly three years. Although petrochemical companies proactively reduced production schedules to ease supply pressure, they were constrained by multiple factors, including the off-season for downstream demand and cautious purchasing sentiment.LLDPESpot prices continue to operate weakly, highlighting the market characteristic of "reducing quantity without raising prices."

Production schedules were sharply reduced, falling to a three-year low.

Data source: Jinlianchuang

5During the off-season, domestic polyethylene enterprises have successively adjusted their product mix.LLDPE The production scheduling ratio continues to decline. According to the above chart, the current situation...LLDPE Production scheduling proportion is only25.74%the lowest level for the same period in the past three years. Excluding the impact of spring maintenance on the downward shift in production schedules, the main reason is the off-season cycle.LLDPEPrices continued to decline, profits narrowed, and enterprises proactively reduced production, shifting toward higher-margin grades (for example, some)HDPEmainstream), further compressLLDPEOutput.

Prices continue to be weak, and the market rebound lacks strength.

Data source: Jin Lian Chuang

5 15Japan, domesticLLDPEPrice Operating Index at8621, down from yesterday0.54% 4Fell at the end of the month0.93% 3Month-end decline3.47%The price performance continues to decline.5The contraction in supply within the month has not led to a price increase.LLDPEPrice performance is weak.

The core reason for the price slump lies on the demand side.5After the peak season, agricultural film demand entered the off-season. Mulch film production is winding down, while greenhouse film orders remain weak, bringing the operating rate of downstream enterprises down to below 30%. Meanwhile, companies in other downstream sectors driven by rigid demand continue to adhere to a “low inventory, purchase as needed” strategy, showing extremely low willingness to stock up on...LLDPEProcurement remains at a low level with moderate replenishment. In addition,2026The second half of the year is expected to have.500more than ten thousand tonsPERelease of new production capacity, among whichLLDPE FDPENewly added capacity accounts for more than half of total capacity, and market expectations of oversupply remain strong, severely limiting the upside for prices.

Both supply and demand remain weak, and the weak trend is unlikely to change in the short term.

LLDPEThe supply-side boost from reduced production schedules was completely offset by off-season demand, expectations of overcapacity, and cautious sentiment. Although CHN Energy Ningxia Coal45 / FDPEInstallation Plan5 26Daily maintenance; maintenance duration approximately30sky, but Sinopec and United Petroleum35 / LLDPEDevice is expected to 5 20Restart around the day.LLDPEThe contraction in production is limited, and the bullish support from the supply side is insufficient. In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to cause disruptions and lingering anxiety. Although high crude oil prices are supporting costs, this support is difficult to be effectively passed through to terminal prices. In the short term, domestic...LLDPEThe market may continue to fluctuate with a weak bias.