IEA Sounds the Alarm: Global Crude Oil Inventory Sees a Record Plunge, and Supply Shocks Could Trigger a Storm of Surging Oil Prices!

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its monthly report released on Wednesday that supply disruptions triggered by the war in Iran...Global crude oil inventories are shrinking at a record pace, which could lead to a further surge in oil prices.。

In April, global crude oil and refined product inventories fell by nearly 4 million barrels per day on average. This drawdown exceeded the combined consumption of the United Kingdom and Germany, severely weakening countries’ buffer capacity to cope with supply shocks.

The IEA clearly stated in its report: "In the face of unprecedented severe disruptions to Middle East crude oil supplies, importing countries are depleting their oil inventories at a record pace."

The agency further analyzes that,With supply disruptions persisting, the rapid depletion of the “buffer cushion” signals that oil prices may be poised for another sharp rise.

Market concerns have consequently intensified. This summer, inventories of certain key fuels may fall to dangerously low levels, at which point consumers could compete fiercely for increasingly scarce resources.

According to IEA statistics, since the outbreak of the conflict, global crude oil inventories have fallen by nearly 250 million barrels. Due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a large amount of crude oil has been trapped in the Gulf region.Excluding this non-circulating inventory, the decline in the world’s actual available stock would be even more significant.

The supply gap left by the Gulf region is currently being partly offset by declining demand from oil-consuming countries such as developed nations.

The IEA predicts that Europe’s daily crude oil consumption will decrease by 140,000 barrels this year, a reduction comparable to the level seen after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The above forecast is based on the assumption that the Iran war ends in early June.The IEA added that if the conflict lasts beyond this point, Europe will have to implement stricter consumption reduction measures.

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of global crude oil shipments. Affected by Iran’s threats against commercial vessels, the waterway has been blocked for nearly 10 weeks, causing widespread supply disruptions for all oil-importing countries.

The interruption of Middle Eastern crude oil flows has caused the most severe supply shock in history. Asia, as the largest buyer of Middle Eastern crude oil, has been particularly significantly affected in terms of consumption.

In the European market, the supply pressure on aviation fuel is the most severe. Data from 2025 shows that around 60% of Europe’s aviation fuel depends on supplies from the Middle East.

In April this year, Europe’s average daily net imports of aviation fuel plunged by nearly 100,000 barrels compared with the same period last year. This directly caused inventory levels at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub to fall below the five-year average.

North America's crude oil exports have alleviated global supply pressures to some extent.The data show that U.S. daily diesel exports increased by 430,000 barrels year over year, with 80% of the cargo flowing to the European market, which is in urgent need of energy replenishment.