From 0.6 Billion to 10.5 Billion to Trillion-Size Goal: Is Zhiyuan’s “358” Plan Ambition or Bubble?

AutoNews, April 17, Shanghai — At the 2026 Zhiyuan Partners Conference, Deng Taihua, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Zhiyuan Robotics, unveiled a staggering performance report that left the entire embodied intelligence industry breathless: revenue of RMB 1.05 billion in 2025, a nearly 20-fold increase from RMB 60 million in 2024. "We have become the fastest robotics company in China to achieve RMB 1 billion in revenue," he declared.

More notably, Deng Taihua unveiled the ambitious "358" plan: surpassing RMB 10 billion in revenue by 2027 and aiming for RMB 100 billion by 2030.

From 1 billion to 10 billion, and then to 100 billion—each step signifies an exponential leap. This company, established only three years ago, has it truly ridden the wave of an industry boom, or is it constructing an overly aggressive narrative?

Three Years, Ten Times Faster: Where Does Zhiyuan's "Acceleration" Come From?

From a financial data perspective, Zhiyuan is on a steep growth curve.

Revenue was only RMB 0.6 billion in 2024, surging to RMB 10.5 billion in 2025, an increase of nearly 20-fold year-on-year.

Meanwhile, Unitree Technology’s prospectus discloses that in 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 1.708 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 335.36%; and non-recurring net profit of over RMB 600 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 674.29%.

Unitree Technology once set a new industry ceiling with a revenue of RMB 1.708 billion, prompting Zhiyuan’s “growth-rate narrative” to trigger market comparisons.

During the same period, Unitree Robotics' revenue was 1.708 billion yuan, but Unitree was founded in 2016. Zhiyuan reached the 1 billion yuan revenue level in about one-fourth of the time it took Unitree.

The growth is supported by real mass production and delivery.

On March 30, Gasgoo reported that the 10,000th general-purpose embodied robot from Zhiyuan Robotics officially rolled off the production line. Among them, 2,126 units of the Expedition series (A1/A2/A3) were produced, 5,008 units of the Lingxi series (X1/X2), and 2,909 units of the Sprite series (G1/G2).

Zhiyuan's in-house production capacity has exhibited exponential growth over the past year and a half.

Image source: Zhiyuan Robotics official website.

From January 6 to December 8, 2025, the production volume scaled from 1,000 units to 5,000 units. From December 8, 2025, to March 28, 2026—just over three months—Zhiyuan achieved the historic milestone of doubling its production from 5,000 to 10,000 units, fully demonstrating its rapid advancement in manufacturing capabilities and breakthrough in mass production.

Wang Chuang, Partner and Senior Vice President of Zhiyuan Robotics, revealed that Zhiyuan is expected to deliver its 100,000th general-purpose embodied robot by the end of 2027.

At the capital level, Zhiyuan has joined the "billion-dollar valuation club," forming the first tier of the embodied intelligence sector alongside leading players such as Unitree Robotics (IPO market capitalization of approximately RMB 42 billion) and Galaxy General (valuation of approximately RMB 21 billion).

These figures constitute the foundational support for Zhiyuan’s three-stage transition—from the “R&D Year” to the “Mass Production Year” and then to the “Commercialization Year.”

The Leap from Tens of Billions to Hundreds of Billions: The Logic and Challenges Behind an Ambitious Goal

Deng Taihua outlined the future vision of Zhiyuan with the "three curves".

By 2025 (three years after its founding), Agibot achieved RMB 1 billion in revenue, entered the productivity threshold, and launched its first growth curve.

By 2027 (the 5th anniversary of Zhiyuan’s founding), Zhiyuan aims to achieve over RMB 10 billion in revenue, realize the end-to-end deployment of productivity solutions (from 0 to 1), and launch its second growth curve.

By 2030 (the 8th year since Agibot's founding), Agibot aims to achieve over RMB 100 billion in revenue, scale its productivity solutions from 1 to N, and embrace its third growth curve.

This means that from tens of billions to hundreds of billions, Zhiyuan needs to achieve a tenfold revenue increase within three years, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 215%.

Such a growth rate is not unprecedented in the tech industry.

Tesla experienced similar explosive growth during the years of Model 3 mass production, but Agibot faces a still immature embodied intelligence market.

Zhiyuan’s product roadmap for this year provides initial certainty toward this goal: Zhiyuan has launched its “Seven Deployment-Ready Productivity Solutions,” enabling embodied intelligence to deliver tangible productivity gains in scenarios including production-line loading/unloading, industrial material handling, logistics sorting, guided tours and navigation, service retail kiosks, security patrols, and commercial/industrial cleaning.

Deng Taifa pointed out that in 2026, Zhiyuan will launch four new product series. First, the company's full-size humanoid robot, the Expedition series, will enter its third generation and achieve over 10,000 units in sales.

However, the leap from tens of billions to hundreds of billions is not an easy one.

The industry still faces core technology bottlenecks — the embodied brain is the current key weakness, and the dexterous hand accounts for a high proportion of the overall machine cost with immature technology.

More importantly, the majority of current shipments are still primarily destined for "non-operational" uses such as research institutions and data collection centers, and a genuine commercial closed loop has yet to be established.

When the capital frenzy fades, whether Agile's "358" plan is a precise strategic forecast or an aggressive narrative born of breakneck expansion will ultimately be validated by real-world mass production and delivery data and the fulfillment of commercial orders.