[Daily Review of Polyester Bottle Flakes] Crude Oil Drags, Polyester Bottle Flake Market Fluctuates Weaker

1 Today's Summary

① Mainstream factories’ May–June cargo offers are at RMB 8,500/ton, with Yisheng basis at RMB 500/ton.

② The capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips reached 72.35% today.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1 Summary of Domestic Polyester Chip Bottle Prices (Unit: RMB/ton)

Based on the East China region, the current spot price of bottle-grade polyester chip is 8375, down by 5 from the previous working day.

With tensions between the United States and Iran easing, crude oil prices fell significantly. The PET bottle chip market opened lower and then fluctuated downward.Today, mainstream cargoes in the East China market were offered at 8,200-8,500, or around a 550 premium to the 2607 contract; some cargoes were slightly lower at 8,150-8,250, or a 500 premium to the 2607 contract. It was heard that mainstream cargoes were traded at 8,200-8,300, while no actual deals were concluded at the high price of 8,500. Low-priced cargoes were traded around 8,150-8,180. Downstream buying interest was weak, with buyers maintaining just-needed restocking, and trading remained deadlocked.(Unit: CNY/ton)

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of polyester bottle chips reached 72.35%. In terms of profit, the raw material PTA price rose to 6150, the MEG price dropped to 4512, the polymerization cost increased by 34.46 to 6794.37, and the profit for polyester bottle chips was 955.63 yuan/ton.

4. Market Sentiment

Table 2 Domestic Polyester Bottle Chip Upstream and Downstream Industry Sentiment Expectations (Updated on Mondays)

5. Price Prediction

With easing U.S.–Iran tensions, crude oil has dragged chemical products lower, and the center of the polyester bottle chip market has fluctuated downward. A new 200,000 t/y unit in East China has been successfully commissioned, slightly increasing supply. On the demand side, restocking remains driven by rigid demand; coupled with weak feedstock support, the polyester bottle chip market is expected to continue trending downward. The spot price for water-bottle grade in the East China market is expected to be 8,100–8,400 yuan/ton tomorrow.

6. Related Product Information

PTA Market: Spot PTA prices edged up narrowly today. For cargoes delivered at the main port this week and next week, transactions were concluded at a premium of 105-140 yuan/ton over the Sep contract; for cargoes delivered at the main port before the end of June, transactions were concluded at a premium of 120-138 yuan/ton over the Sep contract. Intraday, crude oil prices continued to fall, and there were expectations of increased production cuts in the polyester sector, so the PTA market did not perform strongly. However, given the marginal inventory draw in the industry’s supply-demand balance, coupled with the market’s trading on expectations that major suppliers would reduce contract volumes, prices remained relatively firm during the day, and basis strengthened notably. (Unit: yuan/ton)

MEG Market: Today, the ethylene glycol market declined again. At the morning opening, Zhangjiagang spot prices opened around 4,535. During the session, buying interest weakened and prices trended downward. The weak trend continued in the afternoon, and by the close, spot negotiations were around 4,495. The spot basis weakened, trading within the range of 09+80 to 09+85 during the day. In the South China market, discussions were quiet, downstream buyers remained cautious with need-based purchases, and actual transactions were limited.

7. Data Calendar

Table 3. Overview of Domestic Polyester Bottle Flake Data (Unit: 10,000 tons, %)