As New Production Capacity Comes Online, How Will the POE Market Evolve?

Introduction: Translate the above content into English and output only the translated result directly, without any explanation.Several domestic projects awaiting commissioning will be successively put into operation in the near future.POEThe supply landscape is undergoing a shift; meanwhile, the industry is in its traditional off-season, with supply increasing while demand remains weak.POEHow will the market unfold?

Newly added production capacity is being brought online successively, and domestic supply is expected to increase.

According to a survey by Jinlianchuang,2026 5Month,POEMarket expects new additions.20The capacity of tens of thousands of tons has been realized. Among them, the second phase of Beiyouyi has now entered the startup and feeding stage, and Lianhong Huisheng.10Ten Thousand Ton Equipment Plan5monthly production. As new production capacity continues to come online, domestic POESupply capacity will be further enhanced. In addition, considering thatPOEThe equipment maintenance and inspection plan shows that the overall increase in domestic supply is limited, but due to demand being below expectations, there is still certain pressure to reduce inventory.

Downstream operating rates are low, and demand support is insufficient.

Source: JLC

In the previous period, the demand for "export grabbing" has diminished, leading to a decrease in order volumes for enterprises. Coupled with the pressure on profits across the industry, the market is experiencing intensified "low-price order grabbing" due to high inventory levels and weak demand for photovoltaic modules. The slow progress of end projects directly suppresses the production enthusiasm of enterprises, resulting in an overall decline in operating rates.POEThe operating rates of major downstream industries are constrained, demand support is insufficient, and transactions in the market are mostly maintained by a small number of rigid demand orders.

Raw material ethylene prices fell, weakening costs.

Data Source: Jin Lian Chuang

In terms of raw materials, the upstream ethylene market declined, with divergent regional performance, affecting...POEPrice support has weakened. Procurement intentions in Northeast Asia are sluggish, and supply tightness in Southeast Asia has eased. The significant drop in naphtha has dampened market sentiment, leading buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach. In the future, while naphtha may strengthen, ethylene has failed to follow suit, resulting in a divergence between costs and spot prices. Low profits in the downstream sector are forcing steam cracker facilities to adjust their loads, limiting production releases. As of the time of reporting,CFRNortheast Asia ethylene1141 /  CFRSoutheast Asian ethylene1191 /Tons, down compared to last week's average price.6.09%、5.25%。

Supply growth exceeds weak demandPOEThe market is at a standstill.

As subsequent capacity comes on stream as planned, domestic supply will further increase, and pressure on the supply side will continue to mount. Meanwhile, demand remains weak, with downstream purchases largely limited to rigid demand and strong resistance to high-priced cargoes, dampening market activity. Supply-demand fundamentals continue to dominate price movements. In addition, although costs have declined somewhat, they remain at relatively high levels, forPOEPrices are supported at the bottom, making a significant short-term downward trend unlikely. Under bearish dominance,POEPrices continued to fluctuate weakly, and most market participants adopted a wait-and-see attitude.