Maintenance And Inventory Support, Polyethylene Market Expects To Rebound

[Introduction] ： Recently, due to the decrease in spot resources at the end of the month, linear prices have remained firm and experienced a slight month-on-month increase. In November, maintenance remains at a high level for the year, coupled with lower year-on-year social inventory and downstream factory inventory, there is a possibility of collective restocking in the future, and the market is expected to rebound. 。

1. Supply relief, prices remain relatively firm.

Recently, the domestic polyethylene spot market has seen mixed price changes, ranging from a decline of 14 to an increase of 42 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, spot resources are relatively scarce, alleviating supply pressure and leading to a relatively firm market. The price of LLDPE film has increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to last week.

Maintenance at high levels, supply support still exists.

10 The monthly maintenance loss was 455,100 tons, a decrease of 14.52%. Among them, the maintenance volume for low-pressure varieties decreased by 24.16% month-on-month, while the maintenance volume for high-pressure varieties increased by 19.14%, and the maintenance volume for linear varieties increased by 2.87%. The maintenance loss for November is expected to be 416,000 tons, remaining at a high level for the year.

3 Inventory levels are low, and the market is expected to turn around.

As of October 24, 2025, the inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses is 527,400 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons compared to the previous period, down 3.30% month-on-month, and 9.18% lower year-on-year.

In comparison year-on-year, the usable days of raw materials for PE packaging film decreased by 5.70%. The raw material inventory levels of PE packaging film companies have declined year-on-year, with limited demand driving this trend. Companies are purchasing raw materials on an as-needed basis, while also considering storage costs and production profit margins, resulting in a relatively low level of safety stock.

Overall, on the supply side, the maintenance impact in November is expected to be 416,000 tons, still at a high level for the year; on the inventory side, both social inventory and downstream factory inventory are lower year-on-year. Currently, market sentiment is cautious, but there is a possibility of collective restocking in the future. On the demand side, November remains a peak season for agricultural films and packaging films, supporting basic demand. Therefore, with maintenance and inventory providing support, the market is expected to rebound.