How Far Can LLDPE's Upward Trend Go With Unstable Foundations?

2026In [year], driven by international geopolitical situations and rising energy prices, cost support was enhanced, combined with...PEFutures continue to rise, domestically.LLDPEThe market has experienced an upward trend. However, the support from supply and demand fundamentals remains insufficient. Coupled with macroeconomic fluctuations and the pressure of seasonal off-peak periods, the foundation for this rise is not solid, and the subsequent potential may be limited.

Favorable factors converge: Macroeconomic and cost pressures drive price increases.

Data source: JLC Network Technology

2025 12Month, DomesticPEThe market stabilized and rebounded after a sharp decline, with overall performance trending downward.LLDPEThe decline has further expanded, in line with the traditional seasonal price fluctuation pattern. Before the New Year holiday, most market participants maintain a bearish stance on the market outlook, mainly because...1The month is in the off-season for domestic demand, and the subsequent capacity expansion is still relatively concentrated. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, all parties are primarily focused on risk aversion. However, after the New Year's holiday, domestically...LLDPEThe off-season increase in market prices is mainly driven by the tense international geopolitical situation, leading to fluctuations and upward trends in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, coal prices are supported by "anti-involution" policies, causing prices to rise to high levels. The strengthening of costs is pushing prices up.LLDPEPrice increases. Due to concerns about the instability of the macro situation, downstream users' fear of rising prices intensifies.LLDPEThe purchasing activity has improved, and the circulation of some sources has decreased, further pushing up the market spot prices. Multiple positive factors have gathered, as of...2026 1 14As an example of North China, the domesticLLDPEThe mainstream price is in6750-6900 /Ton, comparatively2025Prices rise year by year.7.23%。

Weak Foundation: Beware of Energy Recession and Weakening Off-Season Demand

The development of the current situation in Iran has intensified the bullish sentiment in the domestic market. Coupled with the potential possibility of U.S. intervention, concerns about the uncertainty of Iranian oil production have increased, supporting oil prices. However, it should be noted that if the situation eases, international oil prices may face a steep decline.

Additionally, returning to the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals,2026The first quarter of the year domesticallyPEAlthough the impact of new production capacity is not significant, including BASF.50 /The device for the year is included, and currently in China.LLDPEThe production scheduling ratio remains high, and the supply side is still ample. Additionally, the demand side shows weak seasonal characteristics, with limited orders for agricultural films.2The month coincides with the Spring Festival holiday.1Starting in late November, downstream factories will gradually enter a holiday state, and demand will gradually decline. The overall operating rate in the downstream sector will drop to a low point for the year. After the Spring Festival, many companies entering the market will primarily consume existing raw material inventories, and the support from the fundamentals is expected to weaken.

In summary, this round.LLDPEThe price increase lacks solid support from supply and demand fundamentals. Whether the future trend can continue will depend on the sustainability of cost support and the actual recovery of downstream demand. Once the international situation eases, leading to an oil price correction, combined with the deepening of the traditional off-season during the Spring Festival, the weak fundamentals will once again dominate market logic, and prices may face downward pressure. Therefore, for market participants, while paying attention to macro sentiment, it is also important to rationally consider the supply and demand structure and be wary of the correction risks hidden in this round of "unstable" price increases.